The term ‘World Order’ reflects the realities of political transactions and power equations at the global level and provides the framework for the conduct of global politics and diplomacy. It refers to the unwritten authority and influence that nations and alliances wield through their economic and military power, technological edge, soft power, political stability, political will and the ability to manage perception, global narratives etc.
World order and geopolitical shifts are caused by changing economic and political scenarios, changes in regimes and alliances, conflicts, climate change, technological advancements, security and economic dependencies etc. Tremors of Communist China’s unprecedented rise and its assertion for a place of primacy in the world order are shaking up the existing order. The consequences of the US-China tussle for supremacy is spilling over in the form of geopolitical tensions and conflicts around the world. It has also facilitated a strong ‘Russia - China alignment’.
China’s meteoric rise has also been accompanied by the rise of a set of ‘middle powers’ such as Brazil, South Africa, India, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia. A lot of lost ground has been regained by Russia too. Tussle for the world order, while presenting constant challenges, also provide new opportunities for the world, especially the developing countries.
Geopolitical instability is a major factor that induces changes in the world order. Wars in Ukraine and Gaza have dangerous potential to cause major fissures and political divisions and expand into larger conflicts. Iran and North Korea are holding out despite the sanctions and prolonged isolation. While North Korea already possesses a nuclear arsenal, Iran, with adequate enriched uranium and the know-how, appears literally “one screwdriver’s turn” from nuclear weapon capability. Both the countries regularly demonstrate their long-range strike capability and have managed to keep military threats against them under check.
Fallouts of economic crises, political turmoil and violence in countries like Sudan, Syria, Democratic Republic of Congo, Myanmar, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Yemen, Niger and Afghanistan pose major regional and global challenges. The steady flow of refugee immigrants and the gradual demographic shifts taking place also warrant monitoring. Heightened tension in the South China Sea and China’s aggressive ‘resetting of the normal’ across the Taiwan Strait almost on a day-to-day basis have severe global implications.
Africa is beset with political instability and extreme economic exploitation in many countries. But with its huge natural resources, the world’s youngest population and strategic location, Africa has the potential to enhance its influence and play a very important role in global governance in the decades ahead.
South Asia’s strategic environment and India’s neighbourhood are witnessing increasing turmoil and instability. Afghanistan remains in economic and social distress. Taliban’s takeover of it has had unexpected adverse consequences on Pakistan too. Instead of providing strategic depth to Pakistan, Taliban-ruled Afghanistan has rendered Pakistan’s western and north western borders contested, unstable and vulnerable. Pakistan, despite reeling from economic distress and political instability, is desperately making all efforts to revive terrorism in the J&K region.
Myanmar is rife with conflicts and Bangladesh has slipped into chaos. The deteriorating situation and rising Islamist activities in the region pose direct challenges to India's security and sovereignty. Added to this is the danger of India’s divisive domestic political rivalries creating a situation conducive for exploitation by external agencies including elements of deep states which are active across the world.
Non-state players, proxy wars and grey zone warfare are increasingly being employed to wage wars even by states. These dimensions provide high degree of deniability and low-cost options. These tools also lend themselves to be employed in a controlled, graduated and stand-alone mode for specific purposes even against ‘friendly’ countries. Deep state elements of powerful democracies are reportedly employing these tools to interfere in elections and the functioning of elected governments and even to overthrow elected dispensations in sister democracies.
Covid crisis sparked off the trend of supply chain weaponisation, placing severe strains on the much-touted globalisation. In the geopolitical scenario post-Covid, this trend is strengthening further and giving rise to the formation of distinct supply chain alliances and groupings.
Weaponisation of dollar and global financial systems have raised alarms and forced countries like China, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the developing world to explore alternate means. Although a gradual denting of the dollar as the preferred instrument for transactions and sovereign reserve currency is likely, it would take far more than modest, isolated initiatives to challenge the Dollar’s well-established and deep-rooted status.
The race for dominance in advanced, evolving technologies such as generative artificial intelligence, robotics, Quantum computing, Sustainable technology, Smart transportation, Semi conductors, space technology etc are intensifying. India must invest in these sectors including domestic R&D and forge secure alliances with friendly countries to avoid being left behind in these strategic areas. Along with these hi-tech modern technologies, assured availability of critical minerals will also be crucial to India’s development.
Big tech firms today have greater reach, financial clout and wield more economic and political influence than many countries. They have created considerable space for themselves in geopolitics. They own the biggest global digital platforms and control huge clusters of big data which are powerful tools for global agenda setting and shaping world opinion. They also possess highly intrusive snooping capability which translates into the capability to access, monitor and manipulate data as well as to access and monitor sensitive correspondence and communications of even the most powerful countries. It is a logical assumption that host governments of the big tech firms will integrate critical capabilities of these entities into their respective national strategic assets.
Global warming and extreme weather are no more impending or future threats. Their non-discriminatory impact is already upon us and is being experienced across the globe on a day-to-day basis. Climate change creates new imperatives of sustainable development. It accentuates the disparities caused by unequal access to technology and resources, and raises the cost of development for poorer nations and deprived populations.
United Nations has lost its relevance as a global institution for conflict resolution and maintaining global peace. UN requires a systemic change and structural overhaul to make it inclusive and relevant.
India has done well in asserting its policy of strategic autonomy and demonstrating its capacity to adhere to it. Balancing Indo-US and Indo-Russian relations will continue to be a big challenge for India. The trend of China extending its India-China border dispute into Bhutan and Nepal to pressurise these countries and influence their relations with India is also likely to continue. Regardless of this, India must continue negotiations and efforts to resolve it’s border dispute with China. India also needs to ensure that while building adequate guardrails against any adverse Chinese actions in future, it does not let India-China relations become an appendage of US-China relations. India must continue to pursue flexible diplomatic approach to manage its relations with major powers as well as its neighbours. By leveraging existing partnerships such as the Quad and ASEAN, India can enhance its influence in the Indo-Pacific while also countering Chinese assertiveness on the Himalayas. Internal and regional stability are extremely critical for India in the coming decades. This is particularly so considering the short, fleeting demographic advantage that India enjoys and the steady growth path it has now embarked upon. Greater emphasis on education, employment, health, sustainable and equitable growth and social harmony will be critical to ensuring internal stability. It is imperative for India to maintain a credible military deterrence in all its dimensions, backed by an enterprising and fast growing domestic defence industry.
India must navigate climate challenges while striving for sustainable development and must continuously upgrade its capacity and capability to manage and mitigate climate disasters. Availability of finances and access to cutting edge green technology are likely to pose challenges. India’s thrust for green energy is a step in the right direction. India has an opportunity to provide leadership to the global South and convert the climate challenge into a big opportunity.
Forums like the G20 provides India with the opportunity to showcase its vision for a new multilateral world order. India must continue to advocate for a more equitable global governance system that reflects the aspirations of emerging economies and position itself as a leader in the Global South.
India also needs to mitigate the risks associated with global supply chain disruptions by diversifying its trade and investment partnerships. Research and development in cutting-edge technologies and collaboration with friendly countries to bolster India's capabilities in critical areas will be essential to secure its position in the global economy.
From regional instability to climate change to technological competition, India faces a complex array of challenges in the evolving world order. The nation's ability to maintain social harmony and an environment conducive to development and innovation will be crucial in the new world order. India must navigate these challenges by ensuring internal and external security, domestic harmony, adopting a proactive and flexible foreign policy, diversifying economic partnerships and investing in appropriate technologies. India’s focus must remain on collaboration, inclusivity and sustainable development to address both domestic and external challenges.
(Lt. Gen. CA Krishnan retired as deputy chief of army staff)
(The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of THE WEEK)
