J&K polls: Understanding Omar Abdullah's move to contest from 2 seats amid conspiracy claims, jailed rivals

After Jammu and Kashmir lost its autonomy and statehood, former chief ministers Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti vowed not to contest assembly elections until statehood was restored. However, with the Election Commission announcing a three-phase election schedule, Omar Abdullah said he felt pressured to run, and added that if he didn't, his ageing father might have to step in.

Omar first filed his nomination from Ganderbal, followed by Budgam. Observers suggest that running from two constituencies indicates Omar’s effort to reduce the risk of defeat, especially after losing in Baramulla to Engineer Rashid, the jailed leader of the Awami Ittehad Party (AIP).

Ganderbal has historically been a National Conference (NC) stronghold. Omar’s grandfather, Sheikh Abdullah, was elected from Ganderbal in 1977 after the 1975 Indira-Sheikh Accord. Farooq Abdullah, Omar’s father, won the seat in 1983 and 1987. Omar, however, lost to the PDP’s Qazi Afzal in Ganderbal in 2002 but won the 2008 assembly election from the same constituency. This marks Omar’s third contest from Ganderbal, where his opponents include the PDP’s Bashir Ahmed Mir, AIP’s Sheikh Ashiq, and Sarjan Barkati, the face of the 2016 separatist agitation currently in jail on charges of terror funding. Barkati originally sought to run from Zainapora in Shopian, but his nomination papers were rejected, though they were later accepted for Ganderbal and Beerwah in Budgam district, raising concerns of a conspiracy within the NC against the party.

“For God’s sake, explain why people from jail are contesting elections against me,” Omar told supporters in Ganderbal. “First, it happened in Baramulla. I thought the man was from there, had contested elections before, and was contesting again...But when the assembly elections were announced, news came that a jailed person whose nomination was rejected in Zainapora, Shopian, would fight from Ganderbal," he said.

Omar said he decided to prove that his jailed opponents were part of a larger conspiracy. After consulting his colleagues, he opted to file a nomination for a second seat but didn’t reveal whether it would be Beerwah or Budgam. “They thought I would choose Beerwah,” he said. “This man contesting against me from jail also filed his papers in Beerwah, unaware that I had chosen Budgam.” He concluded by claiming that those in jail were being fielded against him as part of a conspiracy by “Delhi.”

Observers say the NC vice president is showing signs of unease about facing Barkati after his defeat in Baramulla to Engineer Rashid. Omar’s anxiety was clear when, after filing his nomination from Ganderbal, he addressed supporters emotionally, removing his cap, holding it out to the crowd, and pleading, “Give me a chance. My honour is in your hands."

Omar had contested from two constituencies in 2014—Sonawar and Beerwah. He lost in Sonawar to Ashraf Mir of the PDP but secured a win in Beerwah. This time, he has chosen to run from Budgam instead of Beerwah. In Budgam, Shia and Sunni Muslims comprise 40 per cent and 60 per cent of the electorate, respectively. The influential Agha family holds significant sway among Shia voters. Syed Agha Roohullah, NC’s Srinagar MP, belongs to this family, while his cousin, Syed Agha Hassan Muntasir is the PDP candidate in Budgam, likely splitting the Shia vote between Omar and Muntasir.

Omar’s decision to run in Budgam has further alienated some Shia voters loyal to Agha Mehmood, an NC leader who had expected to run from the constituency. Mehmood expressed his displeasure, stating that while he may back Omar, his supporters would not.

In 2014, Roohullah won the Budgam seat for NC with 30,300 votes, while his closest rival from the PDP garnered over 27,000 votes. This time, the race could be just as tight, with Omar needing substantial Sunni support along with a portion of the Shia vote to ensure victory.