Assembly Elections 2024: The October 8 results ended with an equal score for the NDA and I.N.D.I.An alliance, as they won one each. The real import of the results goes beyond arithmetic. Jammu and Kashmir witnessed the return of an elected government after over six years, while the BJP won a historic third mandate in Haryana belying all predictions.
The common theme between these two states was that the electorate did not leave any ambiguity over their choice, giving a clear mandate to the winning side.
On the other hand, the exit polls have once again been proven wrong, especially in the case of Haryana. Despite most of the exit polls predicting a thumping victory for the Congress, the BJP scripted a stunning turnaround story in the agrarian state. In Jammu and Kashmir, the National Conference-Congress alliance are set to form the government with a majority.
The BJP victory in Haryana comes as a shot in the arm for Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led government as these were the first polls after the Lok Sabha elections. The BJP had won Haryana polls beating 10-year anti-incumbency. Even in Jammu and Kashmir, the BJP leaders claimed it was the party's best performance ever. The BJP will now go to the next round of assembly polls in Maharashtra and Jharkhand with confidence.
The elections in Jammu and Kashmir, the first after the removal of Article 370, will restore people's confidence in the public institutions and also help the government score in the perception battle as democratic exercise was successful.
In Haryana, the ruling party is poised to run the government for a third term. Never before a party had been in power in the state for three consecutive terms. Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini will become CM for the second time.
The BJP’s strategy of consolidating non-Jat votes particularly the OBCs and Punjabis appeared to have trumped the Congress’ calculus of Jats-Dalits and Muslims. Unlike, the Congress where its leaders made their aspirations for the chief minister’s post public, the BJP had moved quickly to snub those speaking out of turn.
What’s remarkable about the BJP’s performance is that bettered its performance in Lok Sabha elections held five months back and even assembly elections held five years back. IN 2024 Lok Sabha, the BJP had lost five seats, while in the 2019 assembly polls, it had only won 40 seats, falling short of a majority. After nine hours of counting, the BJP was leading at 49 seats, exceeding the midway mark. Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated CM Saini for this performance. The BJP’s second strategy of changing the CM just months ahead of the polls also appeared to have worked wonders as Manohar Lal Khattar was moved to the centre as a cabinet minister.
In Kashmir, the return of elected government will be beneficial for the local population as they would now have public representatives to address their grievances to. National Conference's Omar Abdullah is likely to CM again in the state with the Congress as an alliance partner. The BJP has emerged as the second-largest party in the state after National Conference. The mandate in favour of a party with a moderate outlook, the National Conference, has given the signal that people desperately wanted the governance to return to the valley.
During the Lok Sabha polls, Abdullah lost the Lok Sabha polls, a few months later, and even announced quitting electoral politics. Now, he won from both the seats he had contested. The other two parties, Mehbooba Mufti-led PDP and Engineer Rashid’s party could not win people’s mandate.
In Haryana, the majority of the seats have been divided between the two mainstream parties – the BJP and the Congress.
These results again proved to all the parties they should not take electorate for granted as they tend to vote based on the ground situation than predicted during the opinion and exit polls.