The Congress’s campaign for the assembly elections in Haryana was helmed by former chief minister and Jat strongman Bhupinder Singh Hooda. With the Congress failing to unseat the BJP in the state, in the focus is not only the lacunae in the party’s strategy but also the political future of Hooda.
An initial analysis of the poll outcome shows that the confidence exuded by the Congress was based on its hope that the Jats, the dalits and the Muslims would consolidate behind the party. It had happened to a large extent in the Lok Sabha polls, when the party had won five seats in the state, up from the zero it had scored in the 2019 elections.
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However, it is now evident that the ruling BJP’s efforts after the Lok Sabha polls to get the other backward castes on its side apart from other communities wary of the Jat dominance in state politics, including a section of dalits, worked. In contrast, it is felt that the Congress failed to get a caste coalition in place in Haryana.
A fragmentation of the Congress’s support base is believed to have helped the BJP. In this backdrop, it is noteworthy that the Congress had banked on Hooda’s appeal to win the state. A tall Jat leader, Hooda dominated the Congress’s strategy and campaign for the elections and called the shots in selection of candidates. For all practical purposes, the Congress had entrusted Hooda with the responsibility of winning Haryana. Party leaders now feel it was a case of putting all the eggs in one basket and relying too much on Hooda and the Jat support to take the party across the finish line.
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While Hooda dominated the proceedings, the divisions in the party were all too obvious. His detractors, upset at being sidelined, voiced their disagreement openly. His closest rival Kumari Selja, a dalit leader, upset at Hooda denying tickets to her supporters, had stayed away from the campaign trail for several days.
According to a Congress leader, the party did have a frontrunner advantage in the election which was palpable on the ground. As per the leader, it was also clear that the BJP was taking some well thought out steps that included Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini’s OBC credentials, the government’s outreach to the dalits after the Lok Sabha elections in which it was felt that the community had voted against it and the party’s decision to replace a large number of sitting MLAs. In the end, it was evident that the election could get closer than was thought to begin with.
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One of the main reasons why the Congress was hopeful of winning Haryana was the perception that the BJP, since it had ruled the state for 10 years, was saddled with a huge anti-incumbency. The BJP had changed its chief minister, replacing Manohar Lal Khattar with Saini, very close to the elections in an obvious admission of the government’s growing unpopularity. However, Congress leaders say while the BJP took steps to minimise the anti-incumbency, which included replacing the chief minister, their attacks lacked the necessary punch.
The central leadership is learnt to be upset with Hooda with regard to the messaging for the polls. It was felt that the party’s narrative for the election was not powerful enough and did not put the BJP government on the mat.
The 77-year-old Hooda had, in the run up to the elections, said in a preparatory meeting that this was his last election. It is unclear whether he is actually planning to hang his boots electorally, but he knew this was his best and perhaps last chance to win Haryana and redeem himself. The election was also important for him in view of his effort to establish his son Deepender, who is presently a Lok Sabha MP from Rohtak, in Haryana politics.
In the wake of his failure to win Haryana for the Congress, the veteran leader now looks at an uncertain future. The knives will now be out in the state unit and his detractors will be emboldened.