In the recent Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections, the National Conference (NC)-Congress alliance secured a substantial mandate, but Congress’s overall performance was dismal, especially in the Jammu region.
The alliance contested 83 of the 90 seats, with NC fielding candidates in 51 and Congress in 32, along with friendly contests on five seats. NC emerged victorious with 42 seats (35 in Kashmir and seven in Jammu), while Congress managed only six, five of which came from Kashmir and a single win in Jammu.
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Analysts attribute Congress’s poor performance in Jammu to strategic missteps, internal discord, and its failure to resonate with voters on key issues. The party’s mismanagement of candidate selection was evident when it sidelined Satish Sharma in the Chhamb Assembly segment.
This decision contributed to the loss of veteran leader Tara Chand, with Sharma running as an Independent and winning decisively, later joining Omar Abdullah’s Cabinet. The defeat of Congress leader Raman Bhalla, who lost to the BJP for the second time, further underscored the party's struggles.
Factionalism within the party also weakened its campaign, especially when Congress replaced young leader Vikar Rasool Wani with Tariq Hameed Karra as the JKPCC chief just before the elections. This move, combined with defections to Ghulam Nabi Azad's Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP), undermined Congress’s ability to mobilise support.
Congress manifesto was also released quite late, allowing little time for the electorate to reflect on it. The Congress also failed to use assets- the Gandhis- effectively to counter the BJP in Jammu, prompting Omar Abdullah to say, “I hope Rahul Gandhi focuses more on Jammu once he is finished campaigning in Kashmir and Haryana.”
Moreover, the Congress failed to address key voter concerns in Jammu, such as inflation, rising power bills, business slowdowns, and job competition from outsiders. These issues had stirred discontent against the BJP post-Article 370 abrogation, but Congress could not convert this discontent into electoral gains.
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The party's reliance on anti-incumbency against the BJP proved to be a miscalculation, as the BJP, backed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, executed a well-coordinated campaign. The BJP’s strategic replacement of 10 former MLAs and its emphasis on the benefits of Article 370’s abrogation solidified its base, particularly in the Dogra heartland of Jammu, Udhampur, and Kathua.
In Kashmir, Congress won five seats, but these victories were more about keeping the BJP out than a strong endorsement of the NC-Congress alliance. The Congress’s weak messaging across the Union Territory and its failure to craft a compelling narrative limited its success.
Despite being part of the winning alliance, Congress opted to stay out of Omar’s government, wary of the political implications, especially following its losses in Haryana and Maharashtra.
Ultimately, Congress’s defeat in Jammu was a result of poor candidate choices, internal strife, and its failure to engage voters, while the BJP’s calculated strategy ensured its continued dominance.
