Following the Election Commission of India’s (ECI) announcement of by-election schedule for six assembly constituencies in West Bengal, the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) has swiftly started its preparations. Party leaders and members launched their public outreach campaigns on Thursday.
The TMC has decided to field ministers, MPs and MLAs for block-level campaigns in Sitai (SC), Madarihat (ST), Naihati, Haroa, Medinipur, and Taldangra constituencies that are set for bypolls on November 13.
On the instructions of Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and Trinamool general secretary Abhishek Banerjee, party leaders have been tasked with conducting door-to-door outreach and organising as many public meetings and rallies as possible.
The by-elections arrive at a critical time for the party which is grappling with what appears to be its most significant challenge–the ongoing junior doctors’ movement–since coming to power in 2011.
As a result, the key question arising is whether the doctors’ movement, which has garnered large-scale support of people from all walks of life, in the aftermath of the rape and murder incident at Kolkata’s RG Kar Medical College and Hospital, will hurt the TMC's electoral prospects. The Mamata Banerjee-led party views the elections as an opportunity to demonstrate that the doctors’ protests have not evolved into a larger anti-government movement and to affirm that it still retains public support.
The TMC has repeatedly claimed that the left parties and some far-left elements were behind the doctors’ movement. Throughout the campaign, the Trinamool aims to spread the message that they are exploiting the doctors' movement to tarnish the reputation of West Bengal and its government.
Historically, ruling parties in West Bengal have often emerged victorious in by-elections, with a few exceptions. For instance, in 2009, TMC’s Sujit Bose defeated Ramala Chakraborty of the CPI(M) in a by-election to Belgachia East constituency, which now ceases to exist following the orders of the delimitation commission.
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Similarly, TMC leaders Khageswar Roy and Madan Mitra triumphed over ruling party candidates in 2009 by-elections respectively from Raiganj in Jalpaiguri district and South 24 Parganas’ Bishnupur Paschim, another constituency that has since been dissolved.
Political experts, however, believe that the TMC may not face such a situation as the doctors’ movement has been largely limited to Kolkata and its outskirts, and some urban pockets in other parts of the state.
“There is currently no clear sign that the TMC will lose a large percentage of votes in the upcoming bypolls due to the junior doctors' movement,” Subhamoy Maitra, a political analyst, told THE WEEK. “But then, to assess whether the RG Kar issue has any specific effect, free and fair elections are essential. Without that, no issue can influence the outcome.”
He also mentioned that, given the leftwing's influence on the doctors' protests, the CPI(M) might increase its tally, if at all.