UP bypolls: Can SP’s caste formula deliver Kundarki again after three consecutive wins?

Of the seats that go to the bypolls on November 13, Kundarki will offer a tough contest which the Samajwadi Party will look to retain with its M-Y (Muslim-Yadav) formula. 

Kundarki in Moradabad is a seat that was won by the BJP only in 1993. Its candidate- Chandra Vijay Singh, had previously won the seat on a Janata Dal ticket. 

With over 2.25 lakh Muslim voters, this is a tough seat for the BJP. And though the party has not made its candidate selection known, the name is likely to be a Dalit. 

ALSO READ | Uttar Pradesh bypolls: How family connections are ruling Samajwadi Party's candidate list

The Dalit voters in the constituency are 68,000. Some 30-35,000 voters are either Kshatriyas or Sainis, while 15,000 voters are Yadavs. 

Since 1996, only Muslim candidates have emerged victorious in this seat. The Samajwadi Party has won the seat the last three times, before which it went to the Bahujan Samaj Party in 2007. 

ALSO READ | Bypolls in UP: How the seats that are going to elections performed in 2022

The Bahujan Samaj Party has announced the name of Rafatullah for this seat. The Samajwadi Party is likely to announce a candidate from the same larger community as the BSP.

The importance of Kundarki can be gauged from the fact that the party is still mulling over a name for this constituency. 

The BSP candidate is likely to be in direct contest with the SP candidate- especially if both are from the same community. This will benefit the BJP.

If the BJP has a strong Dalit name on this seat, a sizeable portion of the Dalit vote might shift to it giving it a solid fighting chance on the seat. 

Kundarki also has symbolic importance as it falls in the home district of Bhupendra Chaudhary- the state party president of the BJP. 

While this is the only seat for which the SP has not announced a candidate, the BJP is also perhaps waiting for the SP’s move before it comes out with a list.