THE WEEK Maritime Conclave 2024: ‘Free seas a prerequisite for national prosperity’

Any nation that aspires to be a commercial maritime power cannot go far without a security philosophy and the muscle to ensure its implementation. The third panel discussion of THE WEEK Maritime Conclave 2024 addressed this subject.

The formal theme was Strengthening India’s Maritime Security and Strategic International Partnerships. The panel was moderated by Commodore Seshadri Vasan, who retired from the Indian Navy and is the director general of the Chennai Centre of China Studies and the regional director of the National Maritime Foundation Tamil Nadu.

The panelists were former chief of navy staff Admiral Karambir Singh PVSM, AVSM, ADC; Consul General Michaela Küchler of Germany, and Richard Chen, director general, Taipei Economic and Cultural Center, Chennai.

“Maritime security is a public good,” said Singh. “Free and open seas are a prerequisite for our national prosperity. For example, when you order something on Amazon, the undersea cables play a crucial role as they ensure fast and reliable internet connectivity.”

He highlighted the growing interest in the underwater domain, which was largely ignored until recently. “Studies indicate that revenues from the seas would exceed revenues from land by 2030,” he said. The increased demand for rare earths would trigger the mining of the seas expanding the scope of the blue economy, he added.

The admiral said that maritime security goes beyond the navy and should address both traditional and non-traditional threats. He added that often threats in the seas have sources on land and vice-versa. An example cited was the piracy around the Horn of Africa. The admiral said that illegal fishing in these waters by certain countries increased economic stress and unemployment leading to traditional fishing communities turning towards piracy.

He said that climate change was another non-traditional threat which would see increased fallout in the days ahead.

Germany and EU want increased maritime cooperation with India

Consul General Küchler focused mostly on the Focus on India document adopted by the German cabinet on October 16. The key strategic document sets the tone for the future of bilateral relations with India. The key maritime components in the report are these:

1.  Germany desires to ink an agreement with India on reciprocal logistical support for the armed forces. This will provide additional support for Bundeswehr deployments in the Indo-Pacific. Once an agreement is reached, a liaison officer will be seconded to the Information Fusion Centre (Indian Ocean Region) in New Delhi.

2.  Germany regards the EU and India as key partners in preserving maritime security in the Indo-Pacific. Hence, it wants the EU’s Coordinated Maritime Presence in the North Western Indian Ocean to be strengthened. The EU’s Critical Maritime Routes Indo-Pacific (CRIMARIO) project, which Germany supports, aims to help partner countries expand their capabilities to protect their maritime areas. Another potential area of cooperation is the EU’s Operation Aspides, which aims to secure the sea routes in the Red Sea and in the Arabian Sea.

3.  Germany is also working with India as a dialogue partner in the Indian Ocean Rim Association. The common areas of interest are “maritime security, the expansion of trade and investment as well as disaster risk management in the region”.

4.  Finally, New Delhi has invited Germany to make a “substantial contribution towards the Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative”, which focuses on strengthening Pacific island states in the face of loss and damage caused by the climate crisis.

War in Taiwan Strait could cause the world $10 billion in losses

Director General Chen highlighted both the commercial and security aspects of the maritime sector of his country. “From the economic perspective, according to the latest report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington think tank, in 2022 approximately US$2.45 trillion worth of goods, accounting for about one-fifth of global seaborne trade, or 10 per cent of global maritime traffic, were transported through the Taiwan Strait,” he said.

He emphasised that Bloomberg Economics estimates that a war in the Taiwan Strait would cost the global economy a whopping $10 trillion, about 10 per cent of the global GDP. “This would be bigger than the blow of Russian-Ukraine war, COVID pandemic or the global financial crisis to the global economy,” he said.

With Taiwan’s mature semiconductor manufacturing industry powering the world’s processing plants, any threat to the sea lanes of this island nation could have an unforeseen impact globally. “Taiwan produces more than 60 per cent of the world's semiconductors, including 90 per cent of the most advanced chips, which are widely used in smartphones, data centres and advanced military equipment,” Chen said. “Once the supply of semiconductors was interrupted, it would result in a loss of trillions of dollars in global GDP.”

About the security aspect, Chen said that Taiwan plays a significant role in preventing China from dominating in the West Pacific, the South China Sea, and countries further down the Indian Ocean. “From this perspective, Taiwan's security is essential to the maritime security of the Indo-Pacific,” he said.

“Yet, even though large parts of the world and billions of people have enjoyed great prosperity thanks to the peace and stability that prevails across the strait, China continues to intensify its aggressive actions against Taiwan.”

He concluded by saying that the Taiwanese government actively promotes the New Southbound Policy, assisting businesses in diversifying their presence overseas. “India, benefiting from a demographic dividend and robust domestic market demand, is considered a crucial partner country under our New Southbound Policy,” Chen said.