The decades old Naga insurgency appears to be at crossroads, particularly with the NSCN(IM) threatening to revive an armed struggle if core demands of a separate flag and Constitution are not met by the government. What is also gaining force is the demand of the Naga National Political Groups to ink a peace deal with the government in 2025 based on their charter of demands that largely rests on enduring, inclusive and peaceful co-existence.
While the NSCN(IM) is making desperate attempts to consolidate its lost strength in erstwhile base in Myanmar taking advantage of the internal strife with the help of some of its cadres, who slipped into Yunnan province of China in 2019, its isolation within Nagaland might put pressure on the outfit to either continue its talks with the government or break away from the peace talks to consolidate its lost strength to revive an armed struggle.
Senior government officials said the latter does not seem a high possibility as the numbers within are few and the outside support will need a local support base. At the moment, smuggling of arms and ammunition, targeted attacks on security forces and fuelling unrest in ongoing protests has been the modus operandi of armed insurgent groups in the northeast.
Over last one year, the threat from the NSCN(IM) has become more challenging for security forces who are aware of the presence of various cadres of the outfit camping close to the India-Myanmar border ever since talks between NSCN(IM) general secretary TH Muivah and then Nagaland governor and interlocutor RN Ravi picked up steam with the latter making it clear that any solution or peace accord will be within the framework of the Indian Constitution and demands like a separate flag and Constitution cannot be accepted.
With Naga interlocutor AK Mishra trying to chalk out a roadmap based on the proposals submitted by the NNPGs as well as the recommendations of the Nagaland government to make a possible headway next year, the reiteration of the government's stand by former Nagaland chief minister SC Jamir recently triggered a response by the NSCN(IM) warning a revivial of armed struggle.
Muivah, 90, is the chief political negotiator of the outfit as well and the chief architect of the framework agreement signed with the government in 2015. At a time when his health condition has taken him away from New Delhi to Hebron camp in Nagaland, the hardening of the outfit's stand is seen as the handiwork of the Myanmar-based cadres led by former Naga army chief Phunting Shimrang.
But back home, what Muivah and his aides are also staring at a generational change that has taken over the Naga insurgency movement that might bring more violence today but does not hold the grip it once had on the Naga people where children of some of the old generation leaders have moved to the hinterland for education and jobs rejecting the idea of violence and unrest.
When the government sits down to talk to the rebel group in coming days, it is this realisation of “contemporary political realities" that may hold the key to thrashing out details of a political resolution as demanded by the outfit.
“The complex relationship may have begun with the NSCN defending and protecting the ‘Nagalim” unique history, sovereignty and freedom, but slowly there is also a realisation that the common Naga interest lies irrespective of state boundaries,” said a senior Naga leader.
Presently, Naga people and their lands lie in different administrative areas across states. There is a thinking among a wide range of Naga outfits, especially those represented by the Naga National Political Groups, that the Naga identity, heritage, culture must be allowed to flourish in all ancestral domains in Manipur, Assam or Arunachal Pradesh through concrete political processes. The need to build bridges with their neighbouring communities in these states may well override the sentiment of division, which once united the Naga groups, said a senior official of the NNPG.
The NNPG is a conglomerate of seven Naga outfits- GPRN/NSCN. NSCN Reformation, Naga National Council/FGN; NNC/Parent Body; NNC/GDRN; NNC/NPGN; NSCN-K and Zeliangrong United Front. The "agreed position" signed by the government and the NNPGs on November 17, 2017 paved the way for several rounds of negotiations. It said,"..the government of India recognises the political and historical rights of the Nagas to self determine their future in consonance with their distinct identity... the two entities agreed to work out the details of a relationship that is enduring, inclusive peaceful co-existence with due regard to contemporary political realities".
The challenge now is to bring other Naga outfits who are not part of the working committee of the NNPGs to support the peace talks in coming days and months. And the biggest insurgent outfits among these are the NSCN(IM); NSCN Niki; NSCN Khango; NSCN Akato; NSCN K Yung Aung and NSCN K Aung Mai.
