The November 20 byelection to nine seats in Uttar Pradesh is a direct contest between the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Samajwadi Party as the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), despite fighting on all seats, has been almost absent from the campaign trail.
The Samajwadi Party’s success in the Lok Sabha election has forced the BJP to field more candidates from the Other Backward Castes. This includes Anujesh Singh from Karhal, Dharmraj Nishad from Katehri; Deepak Patel from Phulpur and Suchissmita Maurya from Majhawan.
The Samajwadi Party has fielded Muslim candidates in four out of the nine seats, Dalit candidates in two seats and OBCs in the remaining three.
The BSP’s caste equations are also on point with two Muslims, two Brahmins, one Dalit and four OBC candidates. But Mayawati's party at best will play to split votes with no real hope of winning any of them.
One of the most interesting contests will be in Phulpur (Prayagraj) where the BJP is eyeing the Patel-Maurya caste combine to vote for its candidate. The Samajwadi Party’s Mustafa Siddiqui on the other hand is eyeing the sizeable Yadav-Muslim vote bank. Phulpur has a traditional Congress support base hence the BJP has its task cut out.
Sihsamau should see a tilt towards the Samajwadi Party as the Solanki family has a prolonged connection with the voters. Party choice Naseem Solanki is playing the sympathy card by telling the voters that she has been forced to step out of home because her husband has been wrongfully imprisoned.
In Kundarki, BJP’s Ramveer Singh faces an uphill battle against three time MLA Haji Rizwan. Here Chandrashekhar’s Aazad Samaj Party has fielded Chandbabu and this might divide the Turk vote and be a headache for the Samajwadi Party.
The BJP and RLD alliance has fielded a non-Muslim candidate for the Meerapur seat. Here. SP's Sumbul Rana will face a division of vote since the BSP, AIMIM and the Aazad Samaj Party have all fielded Muslim candidates. Jayant Chaudhary’s personal prestige will be tested on the seat.
The Majhawan contest has been made interesting by the faceoff between two women. The BSP had muddied the waters for the BJP by giving the ticket to a Brahmin candidate.
In Karhal, the win of the Samajwadi party seems a foregone conclusion because of the sentiment associated with Akhilesh Yadav who has vacated the seat.
In Khair, the BSP’s Dalit candidate could play a spoiler for the opposition- just as it will in Ghaziabad.
The by-polls in UP will not only decide how strongly the party still holds sway, but will also decide how much the party will have to depend on its allies if it does not do well.