With a day left for the Maharashtra Assembly election results to come out, exit polls are mostly in favour of the ruling Mahayuti alliance. Six out of the 10 exit polls predict that the ruling Shiv Sena-BJP-NCP combine will retain power while the remaining predict either a hung Assembly.
In this context, many speculate that the Maratha votes might be crucial, considering that the group that makes up 28 per cent of Maharashtra's population, did not vote in favour of the Mahayuti in the Lok Sabha elections.
The agitation led by Maratha quota activist Manoj Jarange-Patil seeking reservation for the Marathas under the OBC category snowballed into a major movement, influencing where the Maratha votes went. Jarange is said to have considerable influence in all the 43 assembly seats of Marathwada and some districts of Western Maharashtra. The ruling alliance did not shy away from courting Jarange in the months leading to the elections.
Also read: Exit polls predict an edge to BJP-led Mahayuti in Maharashtra; close fight in Jharkhand
But Jarange Patil has made his distaste for BJP, particularly Deputy Chief Minister and BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis, clear. He solidly backed the Maha Vikas Aghadi in Lok Sabha elections, which worked in the opposition's favour, and will likely have done so in the Assembly elections too.
Though Jarange Patil has not named any party to vote for, his earlier stance calling for the defeat of those responsible for not giving reservation to Marathas is widely viewed as a pro-MVA stance.
According to the exit polls by Hyderabad-based SAS Group, Mahavikas Aghadi can win 147 to 155 seats while Mahayuti can get 127 to 135. This survey predicts that Mahayuti will win only 17-18 seats in Marathwada region, while MVA will win 27-28 seats.
The fact that the Marathwada region recorded an average voter turnout of 60.63 per cent was recorded till 5 pm on Wednesday in all eight districts proves that the region may have voted for the MVA.
However, six other exit polls predict an edge for Mahayuti, hinting that Maratha votes did not make much of a difference. Thanks to the BJP's strategy of consolidating OBC votes from Mali, Dhangar, and Vanjari communities, the ruling coalition may counter the dominance of the Maratha community.