The fear of resurgence of the ISIS if the Kurds are run over is as real as the resurgence of Al Qaeda. New Delhi’s urgent advisory asking citizens to “leave Syria by the earliest available commercial flights” and it observing utmost precaution about their safety, comes in the backdrop of advancing rebel forces announcing the capture of Daraa, a southern city near Jordan.
The offensive by the rebel forces in Syria, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), marks the fourth major territorial gain in a week by the rebels who have seized control of Aleppo, Hama, and Homs. The destabilisation of Syria’s political landscape is being closely watched by Indian security agencies as the HTS militant group is looking to capture political space.
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HTS chief Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani’s attempts to project himself as voice of Syrians to destabilise President Bashar Assad’s regime is being seen as an uneasy development by New Delhi where the security brass considers HTS as part of the larger Al Qaeda umbrella. Rebranding does not change the intent or the radical ideology, said a senior security official, pointing towards the infighting that gave birth to HTS with its limited goal of establishing fundamentalist Islamic rule in Syria instead of a wider caliphate. “It is the tactical flexibility that makes it potent,” said a senior security official.
But the gap has closed since. The ISIS can well be back on its feet and so can Al Qaeda as the pot continues to boil in Syria.
At the same time, for Indian agencies, the concern isn’t just northern Syria but also the evolving situation in southern Syria that increasingly has the presence of different entities. Besides the defence forces of neighbouring Iran and growing role of Turkey, there is worry over the activities of shared militias, including those who are associated in the war in Ukraine as well as suspected presence of Uyghur fighters among the ranks, security sources said. Central Asia remains a hotbed for New Delhi whose assessments and strategy will be key to warding off potential threats as the violence and unrest spills over.
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Assessments by agencies have also pegged the number of foreign fighters at 4000-5000 besides their families in the displaced camps and if the situation worsens, the area can turn into a tinderbox with repercussions for the entire region. Already, the Afghanistan-Pakistan region is witnessing a deadly merger of interests of terror groups leaning towards Pakistan for support. Any routes opening towards this region that can allow ISIS fighters find refuge will be a threat going forward, said a senior security official.