Strategic realignment? New Delhi alert as Pakistan, China swiftly capture diplomatic spaces in Bangladesh

Swift attempts by both Beijing and Islamabad to engage Bangladesh’s interim chief adviser, Muhammad Yunus, haven’t gone unnoticed by New Delhi. While India may have been cautious in its interactions with Bangladesh’s interim chief adviser Muhammad Yunus, as well as the BNP, since the ousting of Sheikh Hasina from power on August 5, it isn’t oblivious to the fast-paced strategic realignment in the region. 

The security and strategic concerns are multifold. 

Pakistan and China seeking to rekindle ties with Bangladesh isn’t just about increasing trade and exchanges in culture or sports, rather, the growing political affiliations are an outcome of several policy and strategic moves in the last four months. 

Brisk strategic and policy planning went behind closed doors in Islamabad to deliver the outcome of the recent meeting between Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Yunus on the sidelines of a conference in Egypt. 

The efforts began on August 5 itself, when the high commissioner of Pakistan called on the BNP leaders and the chief adviser of the Bangladesh interim government on separate occasions. Simultaneous moves were made to engage on issues of strategic importance, where meetings were held with the attorney general of Bangladesh, adviser for home affairs, adviser for social welfare and women and children affairs, adviser on cultural affairs and adviser for commerce. The last four months also threw up opportunities for the Federation of Bangladesh Chamber of Commerce and Industries (FBCCI) to exchange views on bringing business communities together and improving trade relations. 

By September, the stage was set for foreign affairs adviser, Md. Touhid Hossain, to declare that Bangladesh wishes to have normal relations with Pakistan. “At least 17 one-to-one meetings were held in the last four months compared to two such meetings since 2019,” diplomatic experts pointed out, explaining the work that went behind making the Sharif-Yunus meeting a success, especially with the latter expressing keenness to resolve issues from the separation in 1971.

The changed political affiliations have closely been intertwined with demonstrable outcomes in policy decisions. For instance, the first ever direct shipping connection since 1971 was established when a cargo ship arrived in Chittagong port from Karachi port last month and is on its second journey, set for arrival in the eastern neighbourhood today. Besides being a major step in bilateral trade between the two countries, it is also a signal of the close proximity being sought alongside stepping up people-to-people contact.

Pakistan now offers visa prior to arrival to Bangladeshi citizens, who can now get Pakistani Visa free of cost in 48 hours by uploading credentials on their visa portal, even as Dhaka waived customs inspections for Pakistan imports as well as security clearance requirements for Pakistani citizens seeking a visa to enter Bangladesh, immigration officials pointed out. Not to miss the diplomatic talks being held with US-Bangla Airlines teams discussing prospects of direct Pakistan-Bangladesh flights, sources said. 

Such a move could bolster higher education opportunities in Pakistan, said diplomatic experts, as talks are on for opening up prospects for Bangladeshi students. Pakistan’s facilitation of a performance by singer Rahat Fateh Ali Khan at the Bangladeshi Premier League’s opening ceremony is just one among the many steps being taken to explore the opportunities in cultural and tourist spaces as well. 

 India’s second neighbour China, on the other hand, has no political favourites in Bangladesh and has quickly engaged those in power. In early September, when Chinese Ambassador to Bangladesh Yao Wen met with Shafiqur Rahman, the chief of Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) at the party’s central office in Dhaka, strategic experts in Delhi sat up to take notice as it marked the first time a foreign diplomat had been to the JeI office since 2010. 

 “The willingness of Beijing to maintain lines of communication across the entire political spectrum demonstrates its capacity to adapt to a rapidly evolving political situation in the region,” said a senior security official. 

The outcome was positive for Beijing as the Chinese Embassy in Dhaka opened its doors on November 25 to host a reception for leaders of political parties like Jamaat-e-Islami, Hefazat-e-Islam Bangladesh, Khelafat Majlis, Bangladesh Khilafat Andolan, and Nizam-e-Islam Party. 

 In another instance, a BNP delegation attended the political party plus cooperation event in Beijing from November 7 to 16 which brought together representatives from political parties in South East Asian and South Asian nations. The Chinese used to host the Awami League in such events earlier, pointed out a security official. 

On November 5, when President Xi Jinping announced China has decided to give all Least Developed Countries(LDCs) having diplomatic relations with China, zero-tariff treatment for 100 per cent tariff lines exported to China starting from December 1, there was much jubilation on both sides. 

 Known for its soft power prowess, Beijing also facilitated the visit of "Hello, China" youth delegation of Bangladeshi Chinese language learners, Wushu athletes, and outstanding high school students to Yunnan Province from November 25-30. The exchanges have been far and wide, pointed out a security official, referring to the Yunus government’s invitation to the Chinese National Emergency Medical Team to Dhaka.

All this was made possible once again by the swift political dialogue by the Chinese diplomats in Dhaka in several meetings since the interim government came to power. For example, Chinese High Commissioner Yao Wen called on the principal secretary to Yunus, the commerce adviser of the interim government and the special envoy on international affairs in Bangladesh as well as the BNP leaders. 

What has also not gone unnoticed is the Chinese naval fleet visiting Dhaka, becoming the first foreign fleet to do so since the interim government took over in August.