Weeks before the US sees a change of power with President-elect Donald Trump set to occupy the White House, outgoing President Joe Biden’s National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan was in New Delhi leading a delegation of senior US government officials.
Sullivan’s India visit was just a week after India’s foreign minister Dr S Jaishankar’s six-day visit to the US from December 24-29 when the latter met Sullivan, and other officials and also held a conference with Indian Consul Generals posted across the US. On Monday, Sullivan held meetings with India’s foreign minister Dr S Jaishankar and NSA Ajit Doval.
#WATCH | External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar meets US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, in Delhi. pic.twitter.com/HiLyVPCqY9
— ANI (@ANI) January 6, 2025
Obviously, this flurry of diplomatic visits is in preparation for the Trump takeover and underlines a certain degree of apprehension in New Delhi.
In a way, Trump has already sounded out his intentions which have led to unease in New Delhi.
First is Trump’s strong statement on economic protectionism by vowing to impose reciprocal high tariffs where he named India besides China, Brazil and Mexico. His recent statements "if they tax us, we tax them", … if India charges us 100 per cent, do we charge them nothing for the same?" has in them the seeds of a brewing trade confrontation.
Second is the MAGA core plank of H1B visas for skilled workers which may impact Indians in a big way because about 72 per cent of H1B visa holders are Indians followed by the Chinese with about 12 per cent. Many in Trump’s Republican Party believe that H1B visas take away jobs from Americans.
Third is Trump’s declared stance against BRICS, a grouping of emerging economies that include India, Russia and Trump’s bugbear China. BRICS has been pushing for ‘de-dollarisation’ or working towards a currency of exchange that is bereft of the dollar.
Recently, Trump wrote on his social media platform: “We require a commitment from these countries that they will neither create a new BRICS currency nor back any other currency to replace the mighty US dollar or they will face 100 per cent tariffs and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful US economy… They can go find another sucker."
The US system of government is a President-centric one with a powerful President being fully capable of undertaking a policy shift. Whether Trump undertakes one will be very keenly watched after January 20.
Meanwhile, a joint statement by the two governments on Monday’s NSA meet described it tamely: "Following the launch of the India-US Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET) by Prime Minister Modi and President Joseph Biden on the sidelines of the Quad Summit in Tokyo on 24 May 2022, the two NSAs have driven concrete initiatives between the two countries across a range of areas including Artificial Intelligence, Quantum Computing, Semiconductors, Telecommunications, Defence and Space."
"The current visit gave them the opportunity to review ongoing progress in their high-level dialogue, including in diverse fields such as Defence, Cyber and Maritime Security."
NSA Sullivan also announced US efforts to finalise necessary steps to delist Indian nuclear entities, which will promote civil nuclear cooperation and resilient clean energy supply chains. While there is bipartisan support for most issues on the India-US strategic partnership, Trump’s propensity to make policy reversals is not entirely unknown.
The NSA meeting was okay. And par the course. But what after January 20? Keep on watching this space.
