The Qatari cabinet reshuffle earlier this month shows the changing political and strategic calculations of the Gulf state after the election of Donald Trump as the next president of the United States. A small, yet rich and powerful emirate in the Gulf, Qatar has punched consistently above its weight in global diplomacy over the years. The reshuffle appears to be aimed at strengthening the inner circle around Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, with a focus on national security.
The changes, which come amid regional tensions and potential risks from the Israel-Iran conflict, see key roles being assigned to ruling family members. Some of these appointments include Abdullah bin Mohammed bin Mubarak Al-Khulaifi as head of the Amiri Diwan, and Sheikh Saud bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani as deputy prime minister and defence minister.
The reshuffle is seen as a response to Qatar's concerns, particularly regarding its ties to Hamas, which could turn out to be a problem, especially once Trump takes charge. The leadership shuffle could help streamline decision-making in times of crisis and it allows Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani to focus on broad policy matters while skipping delicate tasks like direct negotiations with Israel. Doha wants to ensure that it can react swiftly to changing geopolitical dynamics, including potential shifts in American foreign policy, with the incoming Trump administration.
Qatar has been a vital cog in diplomacy involving Hamas. The Hamas political office in Doha has served as a communication channel with various regional and international stakeholders. However, earlier last month, along with the cabinet reshuffle, Qatar also decided to suspend mediation efforts, citing the lack of seriousness from both Israel and Hamas in working toward a peaceful resolution.
Majed al-Ansari, spokesperson for the Qatari foreign ministry, said Doha would resume its mediation efforts only when the parties involved showed genuine willingness to end the conflict. Qatar’s role in these negotiations has always been delicate, given that Hamas is considered a terrorist organisation by the US and many other countries. However, Qatar has maintained its position as an essential diplomatic player, leveraging its relationship with Hamas, to broker ceasefires in previous stages of the conflict.
Another significant development is the expulsion of Hamas leaders from Doha, ostensibly under sustained American pressure. According to US sources, Qatar told Hamas leaders that they were no longer welcome in the country because of the lack of progress in the negotiations. The Qatari government has not confirmed this directly, but al-Ansari did mention that Hamas leaders were no longer in Doha and were instead holding meetings in other regional capitals, including Turkey. The suspension of mediation and the expulsion of Hamas leaders could be seen as a signal that Qatar is reevaluating its relationship with the group. However, it does not necessarily indicate a permanent shift away from Qatar’s role as a mediator.
The timing of Qatar’s decision to pause its mediation efforts comes amid growing pressure from the US to curb Hamas's influence in the region. The Biden administration has been increasingly frustrated with Hamas’s actions, especially after the killing of American hostage Hersh Goldberg in Gaza. It was further compounded by reports that Hamas is not serious about reaching a ceasefire agreement, and the administration has reportedly urged Qatar to remove Hamas from Doha.
A related factor is the unsealing of an indictment against Khaled Meshal, a senior Hamas leader residing in Doha, which led to calls for his expulsion from the country. So Qatar’s decision to halt mediation efforts could be interpreted as a strategic move to distance itself from Hamas, at least temporarily, while maintaining its role as a key regional mediator.
As part of its broader strategy, Hamas leaders have reportedly moved to Turkey, where they have long had a presence. Turkish officials have downplayed the developments, pointing out that Hamas members have been in Turkey since the 2011 Gilad Shalit prisoner exchange, and that many Hamas leaders routinely visit the country. However, the timing of these events, coinciding with Trump’s return and the evolving dynamics in US-Turkey relations, has led to speculation whether Turkey might replace Qatar as the primary foreign base for Hamas.
Analysts like Ankara-based Bilgehan Ozturk believe that such reports could be part of an Israeli strategy to put pressure on the Biden administration, especially with Trump’s pro-Israel stance looming in the background. By portraying Turkey as a key sponsor of Hamas, Israel may be seeking to undermine Turkey’s diplomatic position and prepare the ground for more aggressive American actions against Hamas.
At the same time, Israel’s relationship with Turkey has historically been complicated, making it unlikely that Turkey would fully replace Qatar as a mediator between Israel and Hamas. Despite this, the Turkish government’s willingness to host Hamas leaders and the country’s role in regional diplomacy could see it play a more prominent role in mediation efforts.
Qatar’s suspension of its mediation efforts between Israel and Hamas, along with the political reshuffle within the country, signals a period of adjustment in the region’s power dynamics. Qatar remains a key player in Middle East diplomacy, but its strategic moves, including distancing itself from Hamas and consolidating power internally, demonstrate its readiness to adapt to changing regional and global conditions. With the possibility of Hamas shifting its base to Turkey, and the US preparing for a more aggressive stance under Trump, Qatar’s actions reflect its ongoing efforts to protect its diplomatic position and influence in the region.