The potential trajectory of American foreign policy in West Asia under President Donald Trump’s second term. It is often reiterated that there will be a complex interplay of isolationist and activist impulses within the administration and there will be possible implications for regional stability and the focus will remain on the Iran-Israel confrontation, resolution of the Israel-Hamas conflict, and the American military presence in the region.
Iran-Israel Confrontation: A Fragile Balance of Power
The escalating tension between Iran and Israel is the most critical issue shaping West Asian political dynamics. This commentary underscores how the conflict, fuelled by events such as the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel and subsequent retaliatory measures by Israel, with the potential risks of it spiralling into a full-scale multi-front war. Israel’s strategic initiative, demonstrated by its unprecedented direct strikes on Iranian soil, has significantly altered the calculus in the region. Further, Iran’s reactive measures have become an advantageous option for Israel in terms of deciding the scope and timing of further escalation. In this scenario, President-elect Trump’s second term would likely amplify this tension. It is often argued that Trump has a history of withdrawing from the nuclear deal and issuing rigid demands against Iran with the potential for a similarly uncompromising approach. The demands posed by the previous Trump administration which included restricting Iran’s nuclear ambitions, ballistic missile program, and regional proxy activities, positions Tehran in a precarious dilemma. There is a possible chance that these demands could force Iran into a corner. There are chances that Trump’s re-election can make the situation a little more challenging for the new government in Iran too. At the same time, the personal dynamics, such as Trump’s antagonism towards Iran can further exacerbate tensions between Israel and Iran.
The potential expansion of the Abraham Accords with the prospect of Saudi-Israeli normalisation seems plausible. This is framed as a cornerstone of Trump’s second-term agenda for West Asia, with the possibility of cementing his legacy through a historic agreement. However, there are some stumbling blocks, such as the ongoing Israeli military operations in Gaza and the lack of progress on the Palestinian question, which complicate Saudi Arabia’s willingness to formalise ties with Israel. At the same time, it should be noted that Riyadh’s approach remains tethered to its role as a leader in the Islamic world and custodian of Islam’s holiest sites, necessitating a cautious stance on Palestinian issues. While Israel’s compartmentalised approach seeks to separate Gulf relations from the Palestinian question. Trump’s close relationship with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman can play a significant role in Trump’s second innings in the White House. These factors could increase the likelihood of an agreement, however, Israeli inflexibility on Palestinian statehood can prove to be a hurdle.
US Military Presence in Syria and Iraq: A Strategic Tug-of-War
The US military involvement in Syria and Iraq is poised to become a contentious issue within the Trump administration’s foreign policy during the second term. A faction within the administration may advocate for troop withdrawals, reflecting Trump’s isolationist rhetoric and focus on “ending endless wars,” while the activist camp will likely argue for maintaining a presence to protect US interests in West Asia. In Syria, the strong presence of Iran, coupled with the involvement of other major actors like Russia, Turkey, and Kurdish forces, complicates the landscape. Trump’s 2019 partial withdrawal, which enabled Turkish incursions into Kurdish-held areas, serves as a cautionary tale, highlighting the destabilising effects of hasty disengagement and the risks of creating a power vacuum.
In Iraq, US-Iraq relations are defined by the growing influence of Iran and frequent attacks on US forces by Iran-backed militias. A potential US withdrawal aligns with Trump’s broader goals but risks ceding strategic ground to Tehran. Maintaining a military footprint in Iraq and Syria is not just about countering Iranian influence but also about preventing the resurgence of ISIS, protecting Kurdish allies, and safeguarding regional stability. Striking a balance between short-term political expediency and long-term strategic priorities will be critical for a sustainable policy.
West Asia and US-China Rivalry
Trump’s foreign policy in his second term is likely to frame America’s West Asia strategy within the broader context of US-China strategic competition, highlighting the region’s importance in global power dynamics. While Washington has repeatedly emphasised its intent to pivot toward Asia, West Asia’s critical energy resources, strategic trade routes, and geopolitical centrality ensure it remains a focal point of US interests. The region’s stability directly impacts global markets and security, making disengagement an impractical option despite domestic political pressures.
China’s growing footprint in West Asia, exemplified by its diplomatic role in mediating the Iran-Saudi rapprochement, presents a direct challenge to US dominance. Beijing’s economic initiatives, particularly under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), have strengthened its partnerships with key regional actors, including Israel and Gulf states. Through strategic investments, infrastructure projects, and security collaborations, China has positioned itself as an increasingly influential power, reshaping the region’s dynamics.
Conclusion
The potential trajectory of American foreign policy in West Asia under President Donald Trump’s second term is poised to be a defining chapter in the region’s evolving dynamics. Trump’s administration, marked by a blend of isolationist rhetoric and activist impulses, is likely to emphasise strategic priorities that both reinforce US influence and deepen its alliances while addressing pressing regional issues. Trump’s second-term foreign policy in West Asia will likely oscillate between continuity and disruption. The administration’s approach to key issues—ranging from the Iran-Israel conflict to the Abraham Accords and US-China competition—will shape the region’s trajectory for years to come. Navigating these challenges requires a careful balance of assertive diplomacy, strategic engagement, and pragmatic decision-making to ensure that US interests align with regional stability and global security. The interplay of these factors will not only define Trump’s legacy but also determine the future of America’s role in West Asia.
(The author is assistant professor at the Amity Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, Amity University, Noida. She specialises in West Asian studies and has authored the book 'Through the Looking Glass: Iran and its Foreign Relations.)
