Despite Russia's claim that the Syrian rebel forces have guaranteed the safety of its military bases in Syria, reports have emerged that the situation at the bases is "extremely tense" at the moment. Russia has two critical bases in Syria — the Khmeimim Air Base in Latakia and the sprawling naval facility in the port of Tartus.
These military bases had given Russia a chance to project power in the Mediterranean, especially along NATO’s southern flank and into the Middle East and Africa. While the Khmeimim Air Base in Latakia gave Russia the ability to strike in any direction and threaten NATO warships across the Mediterranean, the port was used to support its prolonged operations in the Mediterranean. Losing both would be a serious blow to the Russian operations in the region.
Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Sunday that both the facilities are on a state of high alert but there was "no serious threat to their security" after the Syrian rebels toppled the Bashar al-Assad regime.
However, some Russian war bloggers think otherwise. War blogger "Rybar", who is close to the Russian Defence Ministry, said the situation around the bases was a serious case of concern despite Moscow's official line. He called Russia's military presence in the Middle East region "hangs by a thread" and what anyone decides in high offices was absolutely irrelevant on the ground. He added that the Russian forces at the bases have not taken the initiative to defend their positions in the absence of orders from Moscow.
There are also signs that Russia could be retreating. While its warships had left Tartous and taken up position off the coast for security reasons, OSINT observers and military analysts said there was an increased activity in the Khmeimim Air Base.
Just after the rebels stormed Damascus, reports highlighted the arrival of multiple AN-124 aircraft at Khmeimim. "Several Russian aircraft have landed at Khmeimim Air Base in Syria, including the massive An-124. Growing indications suggest that Russian forces are preparing to withdraw their key holdings in the Eastern Mediterranean,” stated OSINTtechnical on X.
Analysts also said there three IL-76s landed in the base. "Signs of possible evacuation at Russia's Khmeimim Air Base in Syria. Multiple airlifters have arrived at the base. 3 IL-76s and 1 AN-124. The An-72 is usually forward based there. There also appears to be a Su-24 on the runway. Major uptick in airlifted presence," the War Zone noted.
The Hmeimim airbase had cut off after rebels took control of a nearby town. There are reports that Kurdish forces had started to block Russian facilities beyond the Euphrates, and Russian positions at an oil facility in Homs had been blocked.