Though Russia is still holding on to its military bases in strife-torn Syria, intelligence from Ukraine claims that multiple warships are heading to the Tartus Naval Base to begin a sealift. Russia has also brought in transport carriers Il-76 and An-124 to evacuate Khmeimim airbase.
According to the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU), Russia is using a convoy of military transport planes, which are being loaded with the remains of troops, weapons and military equipment. "Several An-124 and Il-76 aircraft are scheduled to fly from the Khmeimim airbase to the Ulyanovsk, Chkalovsky and Privolzhskiy airbases," Kyiv-based Ukrainska Pravada quoted DIU.
Ukraine's intelligence service says that Russia is actively retreating its key holdings in Syria.
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) December 10, 2024
Russian Il-76 and An-124 heavy lifters are evacuating Khmeimim airbase, while multiple Russian ships are heading towards Tartus to begin a sealift. pic.twitter.com/kFn28jH0Ir
Besides this, Russia is also deploying additional fleet assets. Kremlin has also ordered to prepare Sparta II bulk carrier and the Alexander Shabalin large amphibious assault ship in Baltiysk for deployment to Tartus. In addition, the large amphibious assault ships of the Russian Northern Fleet, Alexander Otrakovsky and Ivan Gren, set a course for the Mediterranean Sea, the DIU added.
Despite Moscow's claim that there is no active threat from Syrian rebel groups to its military bases, war bloggers too claim a column of HTS vehicles have taken position on the main road between Hmeimim and Latakia. They added that there were frequent rotations of cargo planes between Russia and its air base at Hmeimim.
Open-source intelligence said that Russians are carrying out an emergency dismantling of equipment and military property in Tartus. Several hundred Russian special forces have already arrived there to ensure the safety of the retreat.
Russia had 93 observation posts deployed in Syria of which three-quarters were in the government-controlled zone. The remaining were in the Kurdish-controlled north.
Russian war blogger Dva Maïora, who is close to the Russian army, had claimed on Telegram that she received information that the HTS men "were intending to test the defences of our [Hmeimim] base."
"Light camouflage measures [turning lights out] have been taken and personnel have taken up positions." She later added that if the information is confirmed, everything will go very badly, but for now, everyone is preparing to face the [HTS] scum."
However, many analysts claim the tempo of arrivals and departures was not consistent with a hurried departure. No ships have arrived at Tartus to enable a maritime evacuation of equipment or personnel, reported Financial Times.
Satellite imagery on Monday revealed two Russian frigates, a submarine and a support vessel, previously photographed in the port of Tartus on December 6, had left. However, they have held positions about 8km to 10km offshore. “The Russians don’t want them to get hit, so they pull them out to loiter at sea," Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the Financial Times. She added that the ships had been moved outside the range of mortar fire.
"The strong indicators of change are how many Ilyushins and Antonovs are cycling through. And if they have to leave Tartus, you’d actually see more ships show up to help move things out," said "If an evacuation was happening, we would know," she added.
