New dawn for Syria? Navigating political transition and post-Assad challenges

The recent developments in Syria, including the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime, have profoundly transformed the dynamics of the ongoing turmoil. Since 2011, the Syrian civil war has been characterised by complex confrontations involving the Assad government, multiple rebel factions, extremist groups such as the Islamic State, and various international stakeholders with competing interests. This prolonged conflict has triggered a severe humanitarian crisis, displacing millions and causing widespread destruction across the nation. A post-Assad Syria would face the monumental task of shifting from decades of centralised, authoritarian governance to a new yet unclear political framework. Assad's regime has ruled Syria’s political institutions and military apparatus for over two decades, creating systemic dependencies that must be dismantled to allow a functional transition. The formation of an interim or transitional government would likely serve as the first step toward stabilisation. A power-sharing model, inclusive of opposition forces and ethnic groups, could offer a path to reconciliation and shared governance. Such arrangements, however, would require a careful balance of power to prevent the dominance of any single faction.

Additionally, constitutional reforms would be crucial to ensuring civil liberties, free elections, and decentralisation of power, laying the groundwork for a sustainable political system. The swift downfall of a government that maintained power through authoritarian means for decades has created a power vacuum, the implications of which are complex and far-reaching. In the wake of Assad’s departure from Syria has led to groups such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) gain control. HTS, an Islamist movement with a history of extremism, now positions itself as a leading force in Syria’s future. Its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, has pledged reforms, including constitutional overhauls, but has also indicated that elections are not currently feasible due to ongoing instability. This stance raises concerns about the inclusivity and democratic nature of the emerging governance structures. However, for stability in Syria, it is necessary that political pluralism should address historical grievances while fostering a sense of unity and shared purpose among diverse communities. Without inclusivity, there will be risks of repeating the very faultlines that fuelled its prolonged conflict.

Economic implications

The economic implications of Syria’s reconstruction are staggering. Years of conflict have decimated infrastructure, including healthcare, education systems, and basic utilities. Prioritising post-conflict reconstruction will require significant international financial support. Institutions like the IMF, World Bank, and donor nations will have to play a key role in funding Syria’s recovery and ensuring economic stability. Another critical challenge will be addressing the humanitarian crisis. Over six million refugees and millions of internally displaced persons (IDPs) will need safe and voluntary pathways for return and re-integration. Ensuring their access to housing, employment, and basic services will be essential to achieving stability in Syria. While external financial assistance is critical, economic growth must be underpinned by local economic empowerment, transparent governance, and investment in sustainable industries to prevent future dependence on foreign aid.

Regional dynamics

The collapse of Assad’s regime undermines Russia’s and Iran’s longstanding investments in Syria. Both nations had provided extensive military, financial, and political support to maintain Assad’s rule, viewing Syria as a critical ally in West Asia. With the regime’s fall, their regional influence is significantly weakened, disrupting strategic footholds and alliances. In contrast, Turkey stands to gain from Assad’s ouster. Ankara has historically opposed Assad’s regime and supported various opposition groups. The current upheaval allows Turkey to intensify its operations against Kurdish forces, particularly the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which it associates with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), a designated terrorist organisation by Turkey. Turkey's strategic objective is to dismantle Kurdish autonomy near its southern border, thereby preventing the establishment of a contiguous Kurdish-controlled region. Western nations, including the United States, are urging Turkey to engage diplomatically with Syria's new rulers and Kurdish leaders to prevent further conflict and a potential resurgence of civil war. The US has been a key ally of the Kurdish forces in the fight against the Islamic State and seeks to maintain stability in the region. Within Syria, the power vacuum has led to increased tensions among various factions. The Kurdish-dominated SDF is engaged in clashes with Arab tribes alleging discrimination, while Turkish-backed forces continue assaults on Kurdish positions. This internal strife complicates efforts to establish a unified and stable governance structure in post-Assad Syria. Additionally, Israel has intensified its strikes on Iranian and Syrian military targets, including critical infrastructure such as the Damascus and Aleppo airports. These actions are driven by Israel's security concerns over Iran's military presence in Syria and the potential transfer of advanced weaponry to Hezbollah. In summary, the fall of the Assad regime has led to a realignment of regional alliances, with Russia and Iran experiencing strategic losses, Turkey seeking to expand its influence, and Western nations advocating for diplomatic solutions to prevent further instability. The situation remains fluid, with internal and external actors manoeuvring to secure their interests in the evolving Syrian landscape.

Conclusion

The transition from authoritarian rule in Syria is undoubtedly a complex and challenging process, shaped by decades of political monopolisation by the Ba’ath Party and its personalisation under the Assad family since 1970. However, the coalition that assumed power on December 8, 2024, appears to recognise the intricacies involved in establishing a stable system that embraces Syria’s social plurality and ensures stability for its citizens. A critical priority for the new leadership in Damascus is to develop a clear roadmap for the transition. Maintaining order and fostering open communication channels will be essential to address the inevitable challenges and debates that arise as Syria embarks on this pivotal phase of its political evolution.

(The author is assistant professor at the Amity Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, Amity University, Noida. She specialises in West Asian studies and has authored the book 'Through the Looking Glass: Iran and its Foreign Relations.)