After enduring more than two years of political paralysis and uncertainty, Lebanon has made a key political move with the election of General Joseph Aoun as its 14th president. The historic election on January 10 marked the end of a prolonged vacancy in the presidency, as the Lebanese parliament finally chose the long time commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). Aoun’s presidency comes at a time of profound challenges for the nation, including economic collapse, political fragmentation and heightened regional instability. While his election offers a glimmer of hope, the path forward is fraught with complexities that will test his leadership and ability to navigate Lebanon’s turbulent political landscape. Donald Trump’s return to the White House on January 20 could compound Aoun’s challenges.
Aoun’s election, meanwhile, ends a 15-month political deadlock that began in October 2022, following the departure of former president Michel Aoun (no relation). Since then, Lebanon endured 12 failed attempts to elect a president, largely due to the entrenched divisions among its political factions. Under Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing system, the presidency is reserved for a Maronite Christian, while other key positions, such as the prime ministership and parliamentary speakership, are allocated to Sunni and Shia Muslims, respectively. This arrangement has historically complicated the process of consensus-building, with rival factions often prioritising their interests over national stability.
General Aoun’s election was made possible through a combination of domestic compromises and international pressure. The so-called "Quint" coalition, comprising the United States, Saudi Arabia, France, Qatar and Egypt, played a key role in mediating between Lebanon’s fractured political groups. Hezbollah, a dominant force in Lebanese politics, also shifted its stance, retracting its support for another candidate and backing Aoun in the final round of voting. This strategic move allowed Hezbollah to retain some influence while signalling a willingness to compromise after its position was weakened by a recent conflict with Israel and mounting domestic criticism.
General Aoun inherits a country grappling with extraordinary challenges. Lebanon’s economy has been in free fall since 2019, marked by a collapsed banking system, hyperinflation and widespread poverty. According to the World Bank, the financial meltdown ranks among the worst global economic crises since the mid-19th century. The lack of reforms has prevented Lebanon from accessing critical international aid, leaving millions of citizens in despair.
In addition to the economic crisis, Lebanon is reeling from the devastation caused by the recent Hezbollah-Israel conflict, which claimed over 3,800 lives and displaced tens of thousands of people. The World Bank estimates that the war inflicted over $8.5 billion in financial and infrastructural damage, exacerbating the already dire situation. The presence of Israeli forces in southern Lebanon and the impending expiration of a fragile ceasefire later this month add another layer of urgency to Aoun’s presidency.
As a commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, General Aoun is uniquely positioned to strengthen state authority and reinforce stability in a country historically dominated by sectarian militias. The LAF has been one of Lebanon’s most trusted institutions, often seen as a unifying force in a deeply divided society. Aoun’s leadership could pave the way for an expanded role for the military in maintaining security and supporting reconstruction efforts, particularly in regions affected by conflict.
However, Aoun’s ability to leverage the LAF will likely face resistance from Hezbollah, whose dominance in southern Lebanon and influence over state institutions remain significant. While Hezbollah supported Aoun’s election, the extent of concessions made to secure their backing remains unclear. Any efforts to limit Hezbollah’s power or curtail its military operations could lead to friction, further complicating the delicate balance of power.
One of Aoun’s immediate priorities will be the formation of a government capable of implementing urgent reforms. This process will involve appointing a prime minister and negotiating cabinet positions among Lebanon’s diverse political factions. While Aoun’s victory reflects substantial parliamentary support, the task of balancing competing interests within a fragmented political landscape will be a formidable challenge.
Reforms are critical to unlocking international aid and addressing Lebanon’s economic collapse. Donor nations, including the US and Saudi Arabia, have emphasised that financial assistance will depend on Lebanon’s commitment to combating corruption, strengthening judicial independence and enhancing transparency in public institutions. However, these measures are likely to face opposition from Lebanon’s entrenched political elite, who have long benefited from a culture of patronage and clientelism. Aoun’s ability to attract foreign investment and secure international aid will depend on his success in implementing reforms and fostering stability.
Adding to the complexity is the growing Captagon drug trafficking crisis, which has further eroded Lebanon’s international reputation and strained relations with Gulf nations. Tackling this issue, along with broader economic reforms, will require a concerted effort to rebuild public trust and demonstrate a genuine commitment to change.
Aoun’s presidency also carries significant regional and international implications. The Quint coalition’s involvement in facilitating his election underscores the heightened interest of global powers in Lebanon’s stability. The country’s strategic location and its vulnerability to external influence make it a focal point in the broader Middle East. The looming expiration of the Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire presents an immediate test for Aoun’s leadership. While his military background and ties to the LAF may enable him to strengthen state authority in Hezbollah-controlled regions, his influence over Israeli actions is limited. Aoun’s presidency could, however, serve as a platform for renewing diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions and facilitate the withdrawal of Israeli troops from southern Lebanon.
While Hezbollah may gain short-term advantages from Aoun’s presidency, including potential aid directed toward its constituencies, the long-term implications could challenge its dominance. Aoun’s leadership of the LAF and his potential efforts to expand the military’s role in governance could gradually shift the balance of power within Lebanon. The prospect of a stronger state and a more empowered military poses a direct challenge to Hezbollah’s parallel structures of authority. Analysts suggest that Aoun’s presidency could mark the beginning of a gradual reconfiguration of Lebanon’s political landscape, with the LAF playing an increasingly central role in maintaining order and asserting state sovereignty.
