Erdogan gets his main rival arrested, precipitating a new political crisis in Turkey

Turkish politics witnessed a major churn on March 20 following the arrest of Ekrem Imamoglu, the charismatic mayor of Istanbul and a formidable rival to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The dramatic escalation came just days before Imamoglu was expected to secure the opposition’s presidential nomination, marking the deepening authoritarian drift in a nation once hailed as a model of democratic potential in the Middle East. 

The detention of Imamoglu, along with nearly 100 associates, including elected district mayors, on charges of corruption and terrorism, is widely seen as a deliberate move by Erdogan to neutralise his most potent challenger ahead of a possible early election.

Imamoglu’s arrest followed a swift succession of blows. On March 18, Istanbul University revoked his bachelor’s degree, citing irregularities in his 1990 transfer from a university in Turkish-controlled Northern Cyprus. One of the eligibility criteria for contesting the presidential election in Turkey is a university degree. The next day, police apprehended him, accusing him of bribery, fraud and money laundering during his stint as mayor. 

Prosecutors also alleged links to a terrorist organisation, pointing to his coordination with a pro-Kurdish party during the 2024 municipal elections, which he won decisively against an Erdogan-backed candidate. The timing of these measures, mere days before the Republican People’s Party (CHP) primary on March 23, where Imamoglu was poised to become the opposition’s presidential nominee, suggests a deliberate attempt to sabotage his steady rise.

The charges against Imamoglu, especially the one on terrorism, are perplexing, given the government’s simultaneous promotion of imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan as a potential peacemaker. For 26 years, Ocalan has been a symbol of Turkey’s conflict with Kurdish separatism, yet Erdogan now appears to court Kurdish support to push through a constitutional amendment removing presidential term limits, which would allow him to extend his 22-year rule even further. It demonstrates Erdogan’s pragmatic cynicism: neutralise Imamoglu while co-opting the Kurdish vote to ensure his political survival.

The opposition has criticised Imamoglu’s detention as politically motivated, while critics argue that Turkey is transitioning from an “open autocratic regime” to a fully authoritarian state. The way Erdogan prepared for Imamoglu’s arrest was telling. His government issued a four-day ban on public demonstrations, shut down key Istanbul subway stations and imposed restrictions on social media platforms including X, YouTube, TikTok and Instagram. While some protests erupted across Istanbul by mid-afternoon on March 20, the opposition’s ability to mobilise effectively remains hampered by these repressive measures.

Imamoglu has been a major headache for Erdogan since his initial election as Istanbul mayor in 2019—a victory repeated in 2024 with more than 50 per cent of the votes. Both leaders share roots on the Black Sea coast and have used their tenures in Istanbul to build national stature, a parallel that Erdogan finds threatening. 

Many observers think of Imamoglu as a mirror image of his younger self, an ambitious outsider capable of upending the established order. In a defiant video recorded from his walk-in closet before his arrest and shared on X, Imamoglu declared, “I will not back down. I entrust myself to the people. I will be standing tall.” This resolve has only amplified his popularity, positioning him as Erdogan’s most credible adversary.

The stakes are high. Erdogan, 71, and without a clear successor, has dominated Turkish politics for over two decades, narrowly securing a third term in 2023. His failure to get his preferred candidate elected as mayor of Istanbul, a city he once led himself, has fuelled his determination to target Imamoglu. 

The charges against the mayor appear designed not only to detain him but to bar him from public office entirely, a three-pronged win that would allow Erdogan to appoint a loyalist to Istanbul’s mayoralty, intimidate parliamentarians into supporting constitutional changes and sideline his strongest rival. Yet, this strategy carries risks. Much like Erdogan’s own arrest in 1999 galvanised his rise, Imamoglu’s detention could elevate him into a national martyr, broadening his appeal across Turkey’s fractured electorate.

What sets Imamoglu apart is his rare ability to unite Turkey’s diverse voter blocs. He connects equally with secularists loyal to Ataturk’s vision, and also religious voters, reciting Quranic verses with ease and maintaining ties with nationalist politicians. His charisma and public speaking skills have won him Kurdish support, a coalition that twice delivered Istanbul from Erdogan’s grasp in 2019, and again in 2024. This cross-partisan appeal makes him a unique threat, capable of challenging Erdogan at the ballot box where others have faltered.

The CHP has branded Imamoglu’s arrest “a coup attempt against our next president,” calling for nationwide protests. Erdogan’s allies, meanwhile, defend the crackdown, insisting on judicial independence, a claim dismissed by observers who see the judiciary as an extension of Erdogan’s will. 

With the AK Party holding over 270 seats in Parliament to the CHP’s 130-plus, Erdogan may seek to amend the constitution or call for early elections under Article 116, exploiting his incomplete term to run again for more terms. Public discontent over chronic inflation, worsened by his economic policies, fuels the opposition’s hope that an early vote could shift the tide.

Imamoglu’s detention encapsulates Erdogan’s bid to entrench his dominance, yet it may inadvertently strengthen the opposition. Whether this crackdown consolidates an authoritarian regime or ignites a democratic resurgence hinges on the resilience of figures like Imamoglu—and the will of the Turkish people.