The Ministry of Earth Sciences announced the commissioning of a new model for short-term weather forecasting, the High Resolution Ensemble Prediction Systems for Probabilistic Weather Forecasts, with which it hopes to increase the quality of forecasting, and also provide longer lead times – so that there is adequate preparation time – before an adverse weather scenario.
Announcing the development of the new system, ministry of earth sciences secretary Rajeevan Nair said that with this, India would have among the best short-term forecasting systems in the world. The Indian model has a resolution of 12 sq.km, a vast improvement on the previous model of forecasting, which had a resolution of 23 sq.km. At present, only the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has a higher resolution at nine sq.km. Higher resolution means the MET department will now be able to give finer forecasting, almost down to the block level. Right now, the forecasts are at the district level.
The new model was developed with the procurement of penta computers at a cost of Rs 450 crore, said Nair. The Indian Metereology Department (New Delhi), Indian Institute of Tropical Metereology (Pune) and National Centre for MEdium Range Forecasting (Noida) have worked together to develop this model.
The new system is for short-term forecasts, say a week to ten days.
The ministry has also decided to step up research into te phenomenon of thunderstorms, Nair said. He said that in a country like India, all the research energies were focussed towards the monsoon, the big phenomenon, while thunderstorms, being a general phenomenon, did not get the focus. At any given time, there are around 10,000 thunderstorms happening around the world. K.H. Ramesh, director, IMD added that due to climate change, episodes of extreme weather phenomena were increasing, so it made sense to step up the study of occurrences like thunderstorms.
The IMD faced much flak over its prediction of a thunderstorm in Delhi earlier this season. For once, the message was conveyed well and disaster planning kicked into action, with schools shutting down and people altering travel plans. But the predicted storm did not come. Later on, the IMD was able to forecast the weather conditions accurately with decent lead time, three consecutive dust and thunder storms over the capital.