Intensifying climate change will increase the future risk of violent armed conflict within countries, a study has found.
The research, published in the journal Nature, estimates climate has influenced between three and 20 per cent of armed conflict risk over the last century and that the influence will likely increase dramatically.
In a scenario with four degrees Celsius of warming, the influence of climate on conflicts would increase more than five times, leaping to a 26 per cent chance of a substantial increase in conflict risk, according to the study.
Even in a scenario of two degrees Celsius of warming beyond preindustrial levels -- the stated goal of the Paris Climate Agreement -- the influence of climate on conflicts would more than double, rising to a 13 per cent chance.
"Appreciating the role of climate change and its security impacts is important not only for understanding the social costs of our continuing heat-trapping emissions, but for prioritizing responses, which could include aid and cooperation," said Katharine Mach, from the Stanford University in the US.
Climate change-driven extreme weather and related disasters can damage economies, lower farming and livestock production and intensify inequality among social groups.
These factors, when combined with other drivers of conflict, may increase risks of violence.
"Knowing whether environmental or climatic changes are important for explaining conflict has implications for what we can do to reduce the likelihood of future conflict, as well as for how to make well-informed decisions about how aggressively we should mitigate future climate change," said Marshall Burke, assistant professor at Stanford.
