China could beat US in AI, 5G, quantum computing: Harvard report

A report by Harvard University has highlighted the massive advances China has made in multiple fields of cutting-edge technology.

The report by the Belfer Center of Harvard was published on Tuesday. Warning about the prevailing attitudes towards China, the report points out China's massive growth in manufacturing had enabled advances in research and development.

“It has displaced the US as the world’s top high-tech manufacturer, producing 250 million computers, 25 million automobiles, and 1.5 billion smartphones in 2020,” the report noted.

It warned China was already number one in some areas, while it could overtake the US in others, based on their current trajectories.

Artificial intelligence

The Harvard report reiterated the view of Eric Schmidt, the former CEO of Google, that China is now a “full-spectrum peer competitor” of the US in artificial intelligence.

Referring to key sectors of artificial intelligence, the report stated, “In speech technology, Chinese firms are beating American firms in every language, including English. The world’s top voice recognition startup, China’s iFlytek, has 700 million users, almost twice the number of people who speak to Apple’s Siri. In financial technology (fintech), WeChat Pay’s 900 million Chinese users vastly outnumber Apple Pay’s 44 million in the US. While two-thirds of Americans still rely on credit cards, 90 percent of urban Chinese primarily use mobile payments, spending $150 on mobile platforms for every dollar Americans spend—in total, $42 trillion in 2020.”

The Harvard report explained the importance of these numbers. It noted the spending “generates a treasure trove of granular data about individual consumer behaviour that can be used to develop other fintech applications, such as AI-driven assessments of individuals’ credit-worthiness.”

The report warned the US had “conceded the race” in facial recognition technology due to privacy concerns.

Referring to new areas of AI, the report described deep learning as the “hottest subfield”. It noted, “China has six times more patent publications than the United States [in deep learning]. And according to the authoritative assessment of the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence, the United States will fall to second in the top 1% of most-cited AI papers by 2025.”

5G

The report acknowledged China was the single largest 5G market in the world, accounting for 87 per cent of the 5G connections in the world at the end of 2020.

The report noted “nearly all key indicators support projections that China will dominate the 5G future. By the end of 2020, China had 150 million 5G users to America’s 6 million; 700,000 5G base stations to America’s 50,000; 460 MHz of licensed mid-band spectrum to America’s 70 MHz; and 300 Mbps in average 5G speeds to America’s 60 Mbps. Of the five major 5G equipment providers, two are Chinese; zero are American.”

China was mindful of the competitive edge the US held in research and envelopment in 5G, standards and applications. “Recognising the value of 5G standards and fueled by high R&D budgets, Chinese companies are aggressively expanding their influence at standards bodies—and eroding America’s. Huawei leads in shares of 5G patent families granted by the U.S. and European patent offices and in approved 5G technical contributions to 3GPP..," the report said.

The report warned the US would be at a disadvantage for future 5G applications given its lack of a robust national infrastructure.

“China is already pioneering cutting-edge 5G applications, including smart factory systems, digital twins for industrial applications, and the world’s first 5G-enabled remote surgery,” the report said.

Quantum computing

The Harvard report argued that China was catching up, and in some cases had overtaken the US in some fields of quantum information science (QIS), which includes quantum computing, quantum communication and quantum sensing. China currently spends four times more than the US on QIS.

“China has also demonstrated the ability to rapidly turn R&D into operational supremacy. In December 2020, only one year after Google’s 53-qubit Sycamore superconducting quantum computer achieved quantum supremacy, China reached the same milestone. That month, a photonic quantum computer created by the University of Science and Technology of China reached quantum supremacy '10 billion times faster' than Google, for certain calculations in physics,” the report noted.

Referring to quantum communication, the report said, “Edward Snowden’s 2013 leaks revealing U.S. covert information gathering capabilities in China galvanised Beijing to accelerate progress in quantum communication—the 'gold standard' for security. As a result, in 2018 China registered over four times more patents than the US In quantum communication and cryptography (517 to 117).”

Warning about the strategic impact of these advances, the report said, “One expert expects Chinese government and military communications will go black in as little as two to three years, meaning the U.S. would no longer be able to listen in.”

Semiconductors

While the US retains its dominance in semiconductors, its position has been eroded by underinvestment. On the other hand, “The Semiconductor Industry Association projects that over the next decade, China will develop 40% of new global capacity and become the world’s largest semiconductor manufacturer, with 24% market share.”

Biotechnology and green technology

The report highlights Chinese advances in biotechnology, an area where the US has traditionally been the market leader. China has made significant advances in basic and high-end research, pharmaceuticals and therapeutics.

While the US has been the primary inventor of many green technologies, China “has taken the lead in manufacturing and deploying those technologies, allowing it to dominate multiple links of the green energy supply chain”.

The report noted, “China has sprinted ahead of the US and other countries to dominate the key links of the green tech supply chain, including equipment manufacturing, raw materials and energy storage.

Exploiting its status as the workshop of the world, China is now the dominant manufacturer of

equipment for generating renewable energy. From producing less than 1% of solar panels in 2000, China now supplies 70% of solar panels globally. By comparison, in a stunning reversal, America’s share fell from 30% in 2000 to less than 1% today. Four of the world’s top ten wind turbine producers are Chinese and control 40% of the global market, versus 12% for the US."

The report predicts that by 2028, China will be making nearly six EVs for each one the US makes.