ISL derby second leg: Mohun Bagan clear favourites against arch-rivals East Bengal

Unlike the traditional belief that no team holds an advantage ahead of the Kolkata derby, the upcoming Indian Super League fixture between East Bengal and Mohun Bagan on Saturday, which is set to be played at the Indira Gandhi Athletic Stadium in Guwahati, has a clear favourite in the form of the green and maroon brigade.

Under the guidance of José Francisco Molina, Mohun Bagan have been the standout team of this ISL season, currently leading the table with 32 points. With 29 goals scored, they are the joint highest scorers, and having conceded only 13, they boast the league’s best defence. Their dominance is reflected in their five-point lead over second-placed Bengaluru FC.

Although the Mariners won’t host their arch-rivals at Kolkata's iconic Salt Lake Stadium, they remain confident of securing three points. Their optimism is further fuelled by the return of Australian striker Dimitri Petratos and Scottish forward Greg Stewart.

After battling recurring injuries, 24-year-old Stewart made an impactful return off the bench in Mohun Bagan’s 3-0 victory over Hyderabad FC last week and is expected to start against East Bengal. Petratos, sidelined since his injury against FC Goa on December 20, is also likely to rejoin the squad.

However, Mohun Bagan are not completely free of injury woes. Midfielder Anirudh Thapa is ruled out of the derby due to an injury sustained during practice on Wednesday. Ashique Kuruniyan is also likely to stay out of the squad having failed to recover fully following his return from an ACL injury.

Despite injury challenges throughout the season, Molina has consistently led his players to victory. He will hope that his players can avoid the repeat of their shocking slip-up against FC Goa on December 20 as Mohun Bagan aim to extend their unbeaten ISL record against their fiercest rivals.

East Bengal's journey this season has been turbulent from the start. Despite a busy summer transfer window with high-profile signings, hopes for a breakthrough 2024-25 campaign quickly dimmed. A legal dispute with Mohun Bagan over defender Anwar Ali, six consecutive defeats to open the ISL season, and the departure of former coach Carles Cuadrat left the team in disarray.

Under new coach Oscar Bruzon, the team showed signs of improvement, but injuries to midfielder generals Madih Talal and Saul Crespo deepened the crisis. French Talal’s ACL injury has ruled him out for the season, while Spanish Crespo is unlikely to return before February. Ali may also not play the entire match after injuring his right ankle. These setbacks have prevented Bruzon from establishing a stable formula or identifying a consistent core lineup, leading to five different starting XIs in East Bengal's last five matches.

This instability has cost East Bengal dearly, with the team conceding late goals in the 80th minute or beyond on four occasions this season, three under the watch of former Basundhara Kings coach. In contrast, Mohun Bagan have excelled in these moments, securing three wins with late goals.

Mohun Bagan also have a clear advantage in the quality of their foreign players. Stars like Stewart, Jamie Maclaren, Jason Cummings, and Alberto Rodríguez have been pivotal, while East Bengal’s foreign recruits have struggled. Defenders Hijazi Maher and Hector Yuste, in particular, have been miserable, often costing the team crucial points with their individual errors.

However, East Bengal's Indian contingent offers a ray of hope. Players like Jeakson Singh, Anwar Ali, and Souvik Chakrabarti, along with promising youngsters P.V. Vishnu, Jessin T.K., and David Lalhlansanga Hmar, have shown flashes of brilliance.

The 47-year-old Bruzon is relying on these players to replicate the ruthless brilliance of Mohun Bagan in Guwahati. For, one traditional belief remains unchanged—the outcome of a football match is still determined entirely by the events that unfold during the 90 minutes of play.