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Is peace in Afghanistan foreseeable with Pakistan entering the equation?

An Afghan woman shows a burnt copy of the Koran inside her house after Sunday's attack in Kabul | Reuters

Afghanistan has been increasingly facing violent attacks and blasts in the recent years. The United Nations' Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), in May, expressed concern over the increase in violence around the country and condemned the Taliban for deliberately targetting civilians. UNAMA said it was also looking closely at civilian allegations of air strikes by international military forces.

In a recent attack in Kabul in which President Ashraf Ghani's running mate was targetted, 20 people were killed. According to interior ministry spokesman Nasrat Rahimi, around 50 others were wounded in the attack on the Green Trend party office in the capital. Former intelligence chief and vice presidential candidate Amrullah Saleh, who was the potential target of the attack, was evacuated from the building and moved to a safe location. Eighty-five civilians were also rescued from the complex.

Several gunmen were holed up inside the building for six hours before being killed by security forces.

Recently, an increased number of blasts and attacks are being reported from Afghanistan, particularly from Kabul. On July 19, an explosion outside Kabul university killed two and injured ten. On July 16, an Afghan radio station was shut down in the wake of threats from Taliban. The radio station came under the scanner of the extremist military group as they employed women. On July 6, a powerful bomb blast killed six people in downtown Kabul.

Pakistan as mediator

 

Incidents of violent attacks seem to have increased ever since peace talks between the US and Taliban started in October. US envoy to Afghanistan, Zalamay Khalilzad, has been travelling to meet with representatives of Taliban to strike a peace deal with the group. The US wants to withdraw troops it placed in Afghanistan after the September 11 attacks, initially in a bid to capture Osama bin Laden and later to counter the emergence of Taliban in the country.

When the Islamic extremist militant group gained power in Afghanistan in the 1990s, Pakistan were their main sponsors. Prime Minister Imran Khan, on his first official visit to the US about a week ago, said he would talk with Taliban regarding peace in Afghanistan. "I will meet the Taliban and I will try my best to get them to talk to the Afghan government,” Khan said. "It is not going to be easy because there's no centralised command. It is a devolved movement," he added.

Taliban has demanded removal of troops from Afghanistan and assured that in turn they will not protect terrorist outfits in the country and will implement a ceasefire all across the country. However, there still is the challenge that the group will not negotiate with Afghanistan government as they feel it is the puppet of the US. Recently, however, President Ghani said he wanted to meet the Pakistan prime minister to further peace talks. The Taliban too said in a recent statement that they will visit Pakistan if PM Khan extended a formal invite. So, right now it looks like the success of an intra-Afghan negotiation too lies with Khan.

While all these may appear good on the surface, it remains to be seen whether Taliban is willing to relinquish control it seems to have on Afghan society. Things like women's rights, personal freedom and constitutional rule could be up for grabs for Afghanistan if the talks do pan out the way it should. Women and civilians on the whole have faced terrible atrocities ever since the Taliban rose to power in the1990's . They have implemented restrictive Islamic Sharia law in the country and people still live in fear of being attacked if the diktats are not followed. Also, it is true that the Ghani government survives in Afghanistan only because of support from the US. Will Ghani's government and Taliban be able to peacefully coexist once a deal is struck?

Afghan government's inability to put together a team to be able to negotiate with Taliban could result in a breakdown of the progress so far. The intra-Afghan dialogue will be far more complicated than the talks between US and Taliban. Taliban leaders are under pressure from military commanders to not implement ceasefire unless a tangible goal is achieved.

Hopefully, finally when leaders appointed by President Ghani and the Taliban meet, fine points of the negotiations will be ironed out thoroughly as the stakes are high. If talks collapse, citizens will suffer further and Taliban will become more aggressive in claiming cities and regions for themselves, sending the country into further turmoil.