Is Pak Railway minister's boast about nuclear bombs just another gaffe?

Pakistan Railway Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmed has been one of the 'faces' of Islamabad's public relations offensive against the Indian government's decision to abrogate Article 370.

From statements such as “240 million Indians are looking up to Pakistan” to a prediction of a India-Pakistan war in “October-November”, Sheikh Rashid's statements routinely stretch the limits of incredulity.

On Sunday, Rashid seemingly added to his list of gaffes. Speaking after inspecting an under-construction railway station in Nankana Sahib in Punjab to facilitate travel for Sikh pilgrims, Rashid claimed “India should remember Pakistan also has [nuclear] bombs of 125-250 [type]...”. The statement was interpreted by Pakistani media outlets as being a reference to miniature nuclear bombs of “125gm to 250gm”.

Minister of State in the PMO Jitendra Singh took a dig at Sheikh Rashid's threat in a tweet, saying “milk and curd” could be bought in such small quantities.

Given Rashid's propensity for gaffes, the latest statement ought to be seen as hyperbole. A nuclear bomb weighing 125gm seems impracticable given Pakistan's level of technology or even the military utility of such a weapon.

However, this blooper should not distract India from a larger threat. Analysts observing Pakistan's nuclear weapons programme have been warning that Islamabad has been pursuing the development of low-yield and 'sub-kiloton' nuclear bombs for decades.

A kiloton is the unit used to measure the explosive power of a nuclear bomb. A 1kiloton atom bomb produces an explosive force equal to 1,000 tons of TNT; a sub-kiloton weapon has a yield less than that figure. For comparison, the first atom bomb used in warfare, which was dropped on Hiroshima in the Second World War, had a yield of around 15kiloton.

During Pakistan's nuclear tests in 1998, A.Q. Khan, regarded as the father of Islamabad's atomic weapons programme, said four of six devices were low-yield bombs. Low-yield weapons, which have yields of 5 kilotons or less, are considered the weapons of choice against enemy tank formations and airfields, as opposed to major cities.

Since the 1980s, Pakistani defence planners have expressed fears of India using its numerical superiority in battle tanks to penetrate deep into Punjab and Sindh provinces. This, Pakistani officials argued, necessitated the development of 'tactical nuclear weapons' with low-yield warheads meant to destroy targets on the battlefield to deter invasion.

The 1999 Kargil War led to a realisation in both India and Pakistan that a conventional war was possible without resorting to nuclear weapons. In addition, the Indian Army was also believed to have developed the 'Cold Start' doctrine after Operation Parakram in 2001-2002. Cold Start, which revolved around the quick deployment of integrated tank formations to penetrate into Pakistani territory, was considered a major threat by the generals in Rawalpindi.

In 2011, Pakistan conducted the first test of the 'Nasr' tactical ballistic missile, with a range of just 60km. Unlike missiles such as the Indian Prithvi series, which have a range of at least 150km, the Nasr is meant solely for battlefield use and operates with field units. Pakistan's military has consistently touted the capability of the Nasr to deploy nuclear warheads.

In August 2018, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists published an update on Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. The researchers estimated Pakistan had around 140-150 nuclear warheads. In addition, the researchers estimated most of Pakistan's arsenal of short-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles would be equipped with low-yield warheads, with yields in the range of 5kiloton to 12kiloton.

In 2015, General Khalid Kidwai, who was head of Pakistan's nuclear weapons programme for 15 years, admitted to Islamabad's development of tactical nuclear weapons. Speaking at an interaction with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Kidwai revealed the Indian Army's Cold Start doctrine was a key factor that motivated Pakistan to develop tactical nuclear weapons.

Kidwai noted, “In order to deter the unfolding of operations under the [Cold Start] doctrine, Pakistan opted to develop a variety of short-range, low-yield nuclear weapons, also dubbed tactical nuclear weapons.” He admitted the Nasr missile was part of this effort.

Given the Pakistani establishment's perceived embrace of tactical nuclear weapons, analysts have warned Islamabad may not hesitate to deploy nuclear weapons against Indian forces that have entered its own territory, demonstrating a lowering of the nuclear threshold.