Russia emerges as key player amidst Mideast turmoil

“The Kurds... are not angels if you take a look.” It did not take long for US President Donald Trump to renounce Kurdish forces who had been fighting alongside American soldiers for nearly a decade in their largely successful battle against Islamic State. As Turkey kept pushing against the growing power and influence of the Kurdish militia on its border, Trump opted to cut and run, leaving the Kurds at the mercy of Turkish troops. As the Turks overran Kurdish defences in northeastern Syria, Trump shot off a bizarre letter to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in a language unheard of in the annals of global diplomacy. “Don't be a tough guy. Don't be a fool,” wrote Trump, warning Erdogan that history would think of him as the devil if he did not listen. Erdogan's office later revealed that the Turkish president threw the letter “in the dustbin with the contempt it deserved”

Erdogan has been planning an incursion into northeastern Syria along the Turkish border for quite some time intending to cleanse the area of Kurdish fighters and create a 30km-deep buffer zone. He has been particularly wary about the Kurd-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces, a key American ally in its fight against Islamic State. Turkey wants YPG, a Kurdish unit within the SDF, to steer clear of the Turkish border and the buffer zone. The SDF has been the predominant force in the fight against the Islamic State and it had lost more than 10,000 men in the battle. A few months ago, under American instructions, it had dismantled fortifications along the Turkish border in deference to Turkish security concerns. Trump, however, chose to ignore the security guarantee it offered the Kurds and permitted Turkish invasion of the Kurdish enclave.

There has been widespread global opposition to Erdogan's invasion. The US Congress passed a bipartisan resolution condemning Turkey. Republican senator Mitt Romney called Trump's decision to abandon the Kurds as “a bloodstain in the annals of American history”. Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell and Senator Lindsey Graham, two staunch Trump allies from the Republican Party, also condemned the move. Graham called it the biggest mistake of the Trump presidency. 

Other countries such as Russia, Iran, the European Union and India, too, have criticised the Turkish action and asked for an immediate ceasefire. Erdogan, who was initially reluctant to halt the invasion, instead of demanding the Kurdish fighters to lay down their arms, have has now agreed to a five-day ceasefire—calling it a pause in fighting—after a meeting with US Vice President Mike Pence in Ankara. Erdogan is expected to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi on October 22 to discuss the crisis. 

Erdogan, however, is unlikely to go back from his plans to set up the buffer zone as he is dealing with his share of domestic difficulties. To begin with, the Turks have always been opposed to the US decision to cement an alliance with the Kurds, whom they consider a major national security threat. Second, Turkey is finding it hard to handle the massive refugee influx from Syria. Nearly 35 lakh Syrian refugees live in Turkey and under a deal, it concluded with the European Union, Turkey is holding them all, stopping them from travelling to Europe. With the Turkish economy facing a downturn, there is a sense of anger and frustration among the Turks regarding the refugees. The shocking defeat encountered by Erdogan's party in the recent municipal elections has been the result of the growing anti-refugee sentiment. Erdogan hopes that by setting up a buffer zone along the Syrian border, he will be able to resettle at least one-third of the total refugees now living in Turkey. 

The latest Turkish offensive, however, is likely to have several unintended consequences. To begin with, it could alter the fundamental nature of the crisis in Syria in which the Kurds have so far been pitted against forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Along with the US forces, they had been fighting radical groups like the IS as well as pro-regime militias. With Trump abandoning them, the Kurds have quickly signed a deal with Assad, whose regime is backed by the Russians and the Iranians. It was, in fact, the Russians who brokered the deal between the two bitter enemies. 

The ongoing crisis in Syria erupted in 2011 after Assad's troops targeted a bunch of kids for covering their school walls with anti-government graffiti. It was the time of the Arab Spring, and the Assad government responded brutally, arresting, torturing and killing hundreds. Protests spread across Syria, and the demand of the protestors grew from more democratic freedoms to Assad's ouster. There were several groups of protesters, ranging from genuine pro-democratic groups to radical Islamists. Countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE also got involved, propping up their proxies in a bid to oust Assad. The US, too, lent support to some of the groups. As the rebel groups and the government troops were engaged in a bitter battle, the Islamic State also started making its presence felt. The IS drew more members, gained tens of thousands of square kilometres in the territory and established its first emirate in the border region between Syria and Iraq. Even as they fought each other, the government troops and the rebel militias joined forces to target IS militants, finally resulting in the dismantling of their emirate. The Kurds, especially the Syrian Democratic Forces, played a major role in this process.

The Kurds are one of the most persecuted minority ethnic groups in the Middle East. However, unlike the Palestinians, their voices have hardly found any resonance, despite the discrimination and mass murder they had to endure over the years. Under the 1920 Treaty of Serves after World War I, the Kurds were promised an independent state. But after Mustafa Kemal registered a series of military victories and established modern Turkey, the promise was quickly forgotten. There are nearly 35 million Kurds, who are divided between Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria. They face blatant discrimination and persecution in all these countries. Iraq, under Saddam Hussein, was particularly guilty of killing hundreds of thousands of Kurds. But with Saddam's downfall, the Kurds in Iraq have established an autonomous province for themselves. 

With American support, the SDF has managed to secure an autonomous zone for the Kurds in Syria as well. With the Turkish intervention, that seems to be in danger. The Kurds have gone back to Assad for protection. Syrian and Russian troops have started to move into the Kurd-dominated enclaves in the northeast, an area which has been out-of-bounds for them so far.

American geopolitical calculations regarding Syrian Kurds, who were the staunchest American allies in the region, seem baffling. With the Kurds turning to Assad, the biggest gainer seems to be Putin, Assad's main backer and benefactor. Russia moved into Syria four years ago, when Assad's downfall appeared imminent. Strategic experts warned of another Afghanistan, but Russian troops, weapons and airpower ensured that Assad stayed in power. In a matter of four years, Assad reconquered most of his lost territory. Now with the Kurds entering into a deal with him, the reconquest is nearly complete. And, he will have to thank Russia for that. The Kurds, too, are now forced to shift their loyalty towards Kremlin after being abandoned repeatedly by the US.

Russia, meanwhile, is deepening its political engagement in the region. Apart from the proposed Putin-Erdogan meeting on October 22, Russia is also bringing together Turkey and Syria in an attempt to broker peace between the two neighbours. If it works out, it will be a major diplomatic coup for the two wary neighbours and, especially, Russia. Deepening engagement between Russia and Turkey may accelerate Turkish disenchantment with NATO and could spell trouble for the alliance's future. Turkey's decision to purchase the S-400 air defence system from Russia has deepened its rift with the rest of its alliance partners. 

Putin has been on a roll in the Middle East, concluding this week hugely successful state visits to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. While Saudi Arabia has expressed its opposition to Turkey's Syrian incursion, with Russia firmly in the picture, it is unlikely to create any further nuisance. 

The Kurds will feel short-changed, but the latest developments could bring a semblance of peace to the Levant. It will also leave Russia and Turkey the most important players in the Middle East chessboard. Trump may not care, but the Pentagon is unlikely to give up easily.