Sebastian Schulze from the tiny state of Rheinland Pfalz has been coming to the German Bundestag in Berlin every day for the last 12 days. He stands right in front of the entrance of this historic building, waving the German flag and chanting patriotic paroles.
“The Deep State is expanding its clutches over all walks of life, including the right to refuse any vaccination and the big companies and billionaires are conspiring together to manipulate the lives of the common people,” argues Sebastian and he considers it his prime responsibility to awaken the spirit of patriotism among the Germans to raise the voices against any kind of political, social and cultural manipulation. Close to him sits a singer on the ground with his guitar and sings songs marinated with sharp criticism of the current government policies. The freedom every German even today enjoys, to come so close to the House of the People, to sit there and even criticise the State surprises anyone who knows the opposite picture from his or her own country.
Germany is moving towards one of its most closely contested elections on September 26. Though the decision by Angela Merkel to quit politics after her 30 years of service as Member of the Parliament and 16 years as Chancellor did not come as a surprise to the majority population, many Germans still seem to hold her in high esteem for the bold decisions she had taken during her tenures.
The initiatives implemented during the early part of this century to manage the financial crisis, the decision – after the atomic reactor tragedy in Fukushima - to completely move out of the atomic energy and turn Germany into a country of renewables, the almost single-handed bravery to open the German borders to more than a million refugees from Syria in 2015 and the recent bold steps to successfully protect the Germans from a disastrous Corona outbreak are considered to be the most important contributions by Merkel to this nation. With her innate competence and capability to lead the government politically and socially, Merkel transmitted the importance of having dialogues to resolve issues on the German and global front. Often without emotions, she stood as a formidable leader to decide on internal debates, for example on the cancellation of the compulsory military service, right to marriage for the LGBT community. Despite these achievements, Merkel has of late experienced a visible dwindling of political control over her own coalition and the CDU party she has been serving since more than four decades. Waiting for a better point of time to move out might only prove more damaging to a historic political career of a woman leader, who has by now become the iconic image for millions across the world.
The Race to Power After the Merkel Era: The Mainstream Parties
According to the German Federal office of Statistics, approximately 60.4 million Germans are entitled to exercise their franchisee this year; amongst them 31.2. million female and 29.2 male voters. The decision of roughly 2.8 million new voters is expected to determine the chances of the major runners to the elections. In the race to the Bundestag are the mainstream parties Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Christian Socialist Union (CSU), whereby these two form the so-called coalition “The Union”, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Green Party, the Federal Democratic Party (FDP), the Left Party (Die Linke) and the right-wing populist party Alternative for Germany (AfD), which caused evident disruption to the German political landscape in the last Federal elections of 2017 by winning 86 seats in the German Bundestag.
With only a few days left to know who is going to lead the economic and political powerhouse of Europe in the future, Germany displays a surprisingly very silent campaign all over. From the big cities of Munich to Berlin or from small towns like Bad Waldsee to Oldenburg, nowhere does one see any political marches on the roads, no huge seas of posters or vehicles fitted with mega loudspeakers to rip your sleep apart. Even in Berlin – at the seat of power – one really has to extensively search to find any posters around. Wherever the posters are to be found, they are in very few numbers, systematically placed at permitted locations in the public places, without causing any kind of disturbance or hazard to the public.
We get to know how much importance is thus given to environmental protection through such meaningful measures, without getting into any frenzied campaigns to win the elections. No candidate of any of the above-mentioned parties was seen accompanied by hundreds of supporters marching over the roads or streets here. Surprisingly, some of the sitting members of the Bundestag running for another term this year were seen standing almost alone at the information stands set up at the weekly farmers’ market or at the Alexanderplatz in Berlin, politely accosting the passers-by, requesting them for a few minutes to present their candidature and seek votes. At the farmers’ market in the tiny town of Bad Waldsee stood the candidates of CDU, the Greens, FDP and SPD adjacent to each other and campaigned together. Often, during the few minutes they got in between, they were even seen engaging themselves in conversations with one another, clearly symbolising the need for personal respect even while fighting for a seat in the Bundestag. Something very much unimaginable for us.
Though all this sounds very strange to our ears, every piece of information regarding the Federal elections is made known to every voter through official communication by post by the respective local authorities and through other electronic media. Those inclined towards postal voting are provided with the postal ballot paper to cast their votes four to six weeks prior to the election date. Likewise, around four weeks before the election date, every major party starts with a television campaign to woo the voters to their respective sides. A vigilant observation and strict control by the federal election office ensures that financial prowess of any of the contesting parties is not given a free run to influence the voters.
Unlike in many other countries, the German Federal elections offer the voters the opportunity not only to cast their votes for the preferred candidates, but also a second vote for the party of their liking.
The 5 per cent clause stands as a powerful democratic hurdle for most of the small parties to enter the Bundestag. This clause demands a minimum 5 per cent vote share for representation in the German Parliament.
Different Parties, Similar Objectives
The devastating floods in July this year in some western parts of Germany came as a painful reminder of the consequences we must face for the self-made climate disaster. Extreme thunderstorms brought more than 150 litres of rainfall per square meter on a single day of July 15, leading to massive infrastructure destruction and the loss of 196 human lives; something Germany had never witnessed for more than 100 years. Within less than 12 hours, the river Ahr engulfed most parts of the tiny riverside district of Ahrweiler, leaving a trail of massive destruction of more than 4 billion euros. Even though every average German ascribes highest importance to environmental protection, these massive floods, however, brought much more significance to the topic of climate change during this election campaign.
A detailed study of the election manifestos of the two main contenders, the CDU/CSU Union and the SPD does not in fact point to any major difference in their political visions for the next four years. The focus of both the fronts seems to be on making Germany stronger and more stable in terms of ecological, economic, and social challenges as being faced today. Preventing any further damage to the already fragile ecosystem is being highlighted as one of the most important objectives of the major political parties, in particular the Green Party, which appears to be poised to make a deeper penetration into the voter base with their slogan: “Unite for climate protection, peace and togetherness”. No wonder that the Dutch multimillionaire Steven Schuurman made a massive donation of 1.25 million Euros to the German Green Party early this month. Concerned by the devastating fires in Greece and Turkey and the recent floods in Germany, he was following the political discourses in this direction since some time. Impressed by the level of ambition, pragmatism and engagement of the Greens to make Germany and thus the world a climate neutral place, Schuurman believes that people today need a better orientation and stimulus to rethink in a sustainable manner.
No wonder that the Chancellor Angela Merkel visited the flood-hit towns twice since July 15 to offer quick financial and infrastructural assistance to the affected families and to instill voter confidence in the current government.
Alongside the climate debate, more time for a balanced family life, more employment opportunities and stable and stronger economic development through fair laws for both employees and employers, futuristic educational policy changes and better care for the aged through reforms in the care and nursing sector etc. form the foundation of the manifestos of these parties. In addition to these, the SPD has also made the rising rents – particularly in Berlin - a hot topic of political arguments. Whereas the Greens even demand a nationalization of giant real estate companies to contain the skyrocketing rents and provide more affordable dwelling spaces to the common people, the SPD considers dwelling a basic human right and promises to build 4 lakh apartments annually in the next four years, out of which a quarter with public funds and strictly enforce a rental brake.
On the other side, the 2013-founded, populist AfD is struggling to improve its worryingly sliding voter base with the same slogans like tightening the German borders to prevent further migrant flow, making Germany more democratic based on the Swiss system of leaving major state decisions to referendums, creating a new Germany on the basis of nationalist principles, exiting the Euro zone to bring back the power of the German economy and reforming the German foreign policy to focus more on its own internal interests. The international financial debacle of the last decade and the refugee crisis of 2015 had given AfD the much-wished-for clickbaits to intrude into the Bundestag in 2017 with 12.6 per cent of the popular votes.
Much to the relief of the mainstream parties, the popularity of AfD has of late suffered a significant fall, mainly due to the dwindling significance of the political tools of manipulation it had used four years ago. However, the AfD is losing no opportunity during this election time to win back and further broaden its base with the help of the so-called Querdenkers (mavericks), anti-vaccination protesters.
Compared to the political situation prevailing in Germany four years ago, the current political landscape evidently shows a trend towards a more mature and future oriented vision. According to the time-tested statistical analysis of the Institut für Wahlanalysen und Gesellschaftsbeobachtung (Institute for Election Analyses and Social Research), the popularity of SPD has surged from 15 per cent a month ago to 25 per cent by 11th of September, a clear surge of 2 per cent against the Union. With the Greens projected to get more than 17 per cent of the votes, a Red-Green Coalition government of SPD and the Greens seems to take the Union to the opposition bench at least for the next four years. With its announced unwillingness to cooperate for a third time with the Union, the SPD would be rather looking forward to creating its own government with the support of the Greens.
If one recalls the failure of the Union last time to seal a coalition agreement with the FDP - which is currently projected to get 11 per cent of the seats -, the Union will face an almost insurmountable task this time too to form a government on its own. And, none of the major parties in Germany would wish to seek the support of the AfD or the Linke to give a signal of moving either towards extreme right or left, because as per their manifestos, they want Germany to be ecologically more neutral, economically more stronger and culturally more integrated to lead the nation as an icon from the heart of Europe to emulate.
Who will enter the Chancellor’s office?
Armin Laschet, who currently rules Germany’s largest federal state of North Rhine – Westphalia, exudes a high level of optimism and confidence to become the next Chancellor of the Union. However, whether his open fight with Markus Söder, Minister-President of Germany’s richest state Bavaria to win the candidature for chancellorship, will easily be forgotten by the voters remains to be seen.
Olaf Scholz, serving the current coalition government as Vice-Chancellor and Finance Minister, is the SPD candidate for chancellorship. He promises to be having all competence, capabilities and experience to successfully manage the future challenges like climate change, digitalisation and healthcare. Election posters of Olaf Scholz in a black suit on a red background appear to have taken more appealing space wherever one travels today in Germany. The question of his projected experience as a politician and vice-chancellor will be answered on the 26th of September.
Encountering the heat of the race to the chancellorship from the side of the Greens is its party chief Annalena Baerbock. The proclaimed objectives of the Greens to mercilessly restrict the industries – mainly the automobile sector – from further destroying the environment and a much-expected coalition agreement with the SPD might land her in the vice-chancellor’s office, as the SPD would hardly be willing to give away the most-coveted office in the Bundestag in Berlin.
The author is the Honorary Consul of the Federal Republic of Germany in Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala
The views expressed in this article are personal and do not necessarily represent the view of the German government.