Portuguese Prime Minister António Luís Santos da Costa pulled off a stunning triumph in the snap elections held on January 30, winning a third consecutive term, with his centre-left Socialist Party (Partido Socialista) securing 117 seats in the 230-seat parliament. While the Socialists secured 41.7 per cent votes, its main rival, the centre-right Social Democratic Party (Partido Social Democrata) got 29.3 per cent votes, giving it 71 seats in the parliament. Surprisingly, the far right Chega came third with 12 seats, with a seven per cent vote share, up from a single seat and 1.3 per cent vote share in 2019.
Costa had to face the polls before the parliament finished its term because his erstwhile coalition partners—the Communist Party of Portugal (Partido Comunista Português) and the Left Bloc (Bloco de Esquerda)—joined hands with his far right opponents and voted against the budget in December. Costa’s handling of the pandemic and his stewardship of the ailing economy seem to have won the approval of the voters, who gave his party an outright victory. No single party has won a parliamentary majority in Portugal since 2005.
Costa’s paternal family has an Indian connection. His grandfather was born and brought up in Goa. His father, Orlando da Costa, was born in Mozambique, another Portuguese colony. Orlando has written extensively on India and Goa. His mother, Maria Antónia Palla, is a journalist, writer and feminist.
Costa, the 119th prime minister of Portugal, was first elected to the post in November 2015. Before becoming prime minister, he served multiple terms as cabinet minister, was vice president of the European Parliament and mayor of Lisbon. He is also the head of the Socialist Party since November 2014.
“I have known Costa and his father for almost 30 years. His father was a great writer and gentleman and his mother is a renowned journalist and feminist activist,” said Maria Virginia Gomes, a retired official of the ministry of social welfare and security. It was during Costa’s period as the mayor of Lisbon that he got the nickname “Gandhi of Lisbon” for his frugal lifestyle and his Indian roots. In 2017, he was awarded the Pravasi Bharatiya Samman by the president of India and also holds an Overseas Citizen of India (OCI) card.
Although his party now has a majority of its own, Costa has promised to work with the opposition, except Chega. His priority remains leading Portugal’s economic recovery after the 2017 Iberian wildfires, the 2020 stock market crash and Covid, by implementing reforms and attracting investments.
“An absolute majority is not absolute power. Governing alone is an increased responsibility,” said Costa after his victory. Yet, being able to govern without the support of the far left parties is a major opportunity. Since 2015, the final word of the Costa government on most critical issues has come from left parties. Till 2019, Costa had in place a system which was called geringonça (unwieldy contraption), based on a written agreement with his leftist coalition partners. Since 2019, there was no such formal agreement and Costa relied on negotiations, one law at a time, which made governance difficult.
Gomes said Costa was instrumental in putting the Portuguese economy back on track after the devastating economic crisis of 2011-2014. “We had a huge austerity period after the 2011 election, which was won by the Social Democrats. Many of us lost our jobs, earnings and pensions. After 2015, Costa helped in pulling the country out of the austerity period,” she said.
In fact, before the pandemic struck, Portugal had witnessed a period of steady economic growth that helped shrink the national debt and even left a small surplus for the treasury. Still, Portugal remains one of the poorest countries in the European Union. Costa hopes that by channelling the EU’s €16.6 billion pandemic recovery package, he would be able to kickstart economic growth. “People need stability, and I hope Costa could bring that with EU aid,” said Gomes.
Costa had proposed the idea of the state paying for health care, education and other basic necessities in the financial bill presented in December. “The Socialists want the government to take care of the people and the Social Democrats want the companies and industries to have power. The idea of the state paying for the people is insane to me, but I would like to see how Costa implements it,” said Joaquim Corriea, a writer and a supporter of the Communist Party.
The pro-poor policies of the Socialists have won the support of a large number of people. Tiago Molarinho, architect and researcher from the northwestern city of Braga, said he voted for Costa because he was unable to earn enough. “Things need to change because taxes are 23 per cent in Portugal with so little pay, compared with neighbouring Spain,” said Molarinho. “I hope Costa brings some change in the next four years.”
Doris Carvallo, a daily wage worker from Lisbon, said Portugal needed the Socialists during these tough times. “I do not know much about politics, but it is not the time for political change. Stability is priority,” said Carvallo.
Even as the Socialists scored an impressive win under Costa, there are many who are worried about the rise of Chega, which identifies itself as the party of “God, fatherland and family”. “This was never seen in Portugal before. It is alarming that Chega is gaining momentum,” said lawyer and academic Sergio Mascarenhas. “Chega’s ideology goes against the rights of state and democracy and brings back the ideology of Estado Novo (new state) of the late dictator Antonio Salazar [who ruled Portugal from 1932 to 1968]. I do see Chega as Salazar’s successor. But I think the voters know what to do.”
Chega founder Andre Ventura, a football pundit turned politician, said there would no longer be a soft opposition. “We will assume the role of the real opposition to the Socialists and restore dignity to this country,” he said. Mascarenhas blamed the media for Chega’s unprecedented growth. “Ventura wants to seek attention and power and the media helped him. In the past two years, he was able to say anything he wanted. That helped him remain in the limelight,” he said.
The possibility of the far right resurgence has been alarming for many voters. “What scares me the most is the prospect of a far right majority. Most private college students and management indirectly favour Chega and the far right,” said Elsa Ivone, a political science student from Lisbon.
There are, however, observers who see a different side of Chega. “Before outrightly condemning Chega, one has to look at its policies. Portugal is losing its ‘original’ natives and in 10 years the country’s demography will be completely different,” said Sunil Bhaskaran, who runs a restaurant in Lisbon. Bhaskaran, ironically, is an immigrant from India, but he said Portugal’s liberal immigration policies posed a major challenge to the country’s future.
According to the National Statistics Institute (INE) Portugal’s population is ageing fast. Meanwhile, Portugal is the only country in Europe which gives permanent residence to those who stay legally in the country for five years. “Chega wants to end illegal immigration. Ventura is not the only leader who supports such a position. Similar policies are also pursued by leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. I do not support Chega, but these are the things people would never tell you.”
But on a positive note for the liberals, the fear of the far right has helped Costa. Nalini Elvino de Sousa, a researcher and filmmaker of Indian descent, said the debates and the conversations on television made voters engage more closely in the electoral process and cast their votes. Raghunath Kadavannoor, who contested local body elections last year on behalf of the Unitary Democratic Coalition, a joint front of the Communists and the Greens, too, agreed that with most electioneering taking place on television and social media, the shrill campaign of the far right scared many people. “There are many reasons why the Socialists won an outright victory. People have been looking for economic stability and a solid government,” said Kadavannoor, who migrated to Portugal from Kerala. “The fear of the right wing also motivated many of them to step out on the polling day and vote for Costa.”
The author is a doctoral candidate at Nova University, Lisbon.