Days after Russia commenced its invasion of Ukraine, a senior EU official claimed members of the bloc were readying to supply fighter jets to Kyiv.
At the time, there was speculation Poland, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Hungary could be sources of aircraft. This is because all these nations—once members of the Warsaw Pact—operate Soviet-origin weaponry. Poland, Slovakia and Bulgaria all operate MiG-29 air defence fighters, while Bulgaria also operates the Sukhoi Su-25 ground-attack aircraft. Both the MiG-29 and Su-25 are operated by the Ukrainian Air Force.
Hungary and even Romania were operators of the MiG-29 in the past and are speculated to have some aircraft in storage.
However, the initial news of a fighter supply from the EU to Ukraine was quickly denied. US media outlet Politico reported last week Ukrainian pilots had arrived in Poland to take delivery of the jets, but no agreement was reached. Bulgaria and Slovakia also rejected calls to supply MiG-29s.
First, why does Ukraine need Soviet-origin jets?
According to the World Air Forces directory for 2022, published by Flight International, Ukraine had a fleet of 98 combat jets prior to the Russian invasion. This included 43 MiG-29 and 17 Su-25 jets.
Video footage last week showed at least a handful of Ukraine's MiG-29 jets was damaged in a Russian air strike on a base.
Ukrainian pilots and technicians would need several months of training to operate fighters from the US, France or other suppliers. In addition, delivery and stocking of new weapons, electronics, fuel and other components for a new aircraft would cost time and money, which is not possible in an ongoing war.
On the other hand, MiG-29s of the same vintage can be 'on-boarded' with minimal investments and flight training.
So, why would Poland and others worry?
On Sunday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told CNN the US was working on an arrangement with Poland on supplying MiG-29s to Ukraine. The plan would involve the US supplying additional F-16 jets to Poland to compensate for the loss of the MiG-29s.
Blinken said “We are working with Poland as we speak to see if we can backfill anything that they provide to the Ukrainians. We very much support them, providing MiGs, SUs, planes that Ukrainian can fly, to the Ukrainians.”
Intriguingly, on Sunday, the Twitter handle of Chancellery of the prime minister of Poland declared “Poland won't send its fighter jets to Ukraine as well as allow to use its airports. We significantly help in many other areas.”
Even before the war began, Russia had repeatedly warned NATO and the EU against boosting assistance to Ukraine. If Poland were to hand over its MiG-29s, a row may ensue given the possibility of Russian fighters intercepting an aircraft flying to Ukraine from a NATO state.
While the possibility of a 'NATO versus Russia' conflict over Ukraine still remains low, alliance members like Poland and Slovakia need to maintain the strength of their air force fleets.
Transferring MiG-29s to Ukraine would entail a loss of capability for these NATO states. Poland operates a fleet of 23 MiG-29s, according to Flight International. Despite their age, these aircraft will remain a crucial component of the Polish Air Force's interception capability until the country receives the first of 32 F-35 stealth fighters from the US in 2024.
Waiting list for F-16s
The US 'offer' of supplying F-16s to Poland to offset the loss of MiG-29s has been met with scepticism by some experts. Poland operates a fleet of 36 F-16s, which it acquired a decade ago. The US is building new F-16s for Slovakia and Taiwan; as both countries have security concerns, it is unlikely their orders will be transferred to Poland.
Transferring older F-16s from the US Air Force also has complications. US defence website The Drive noted “No matter where they [used F-16s] would come from, it will take some time to get them delivered and get Polish crews trained to fly and support them. Poland flies the much more modern Block 52+ F-16C/D. While the type has much in common with earlier block Vipers, they are far from totally the same and would require specific training and logistical support to reach full operational capability in Polish hands.”
NATO equipment headache
Finally, Poland and NATO will need to worry about the equipment on the MiG-29 fleet operated by Warsaw. This is because Poland's MiG-29 jets have been upgraded with specific equipment such as radios, navigation and secure communication equipment to make them interoperable with NATO forces.
Transferring the jets to Ukraine would mean these components would likely have to be removed, given fears Russia could get hold of them.
PS: If Ukraine does get Poland's MiG-29 fleet, it would be the third operator of these jets! Germany gave the aircraft, inherited via East Germany, to Poland in 2003.
