The second round of the French presidential election, scheduled to be held on April 24, has been dubbed a rematch of the 2017 polls. Back then, centrist Emmanuel Macron had won against far-right candidate Marine Le Pen.
2017 results
On April 24, the duo are again the contenders. But this time, the dynamics of who held third place in the first round are markedly different. In 2017, former prime minister François Fillon of the centre-right Les Républicains secured 20 per cent of the vote in the first round of the election to be in third place. After his loss, Fillon called on his supporters to back Macron. Jean-Luc Mélenchon of the far-left La France Insoumise (France Unbowed) was in fourth place with 19.6 per cent of the vote in that election.
In the first round of this year's election, held on Sunday, Mélenchon secured nearly 22 per cent of the vote to emerge in third place. In fact, for most of the counting process, Mélenchon was close behind Le Pen, and, to some observers, looked headed for the run-off against Macron.
According to reports, Mélenchon secured 77,14,949 votes, against Le Pen's 81,36,369 and Macron's 97,85,578.
Mélenchon's remarkable performance, despite the surfeit of leftwing parties, has positioned him as a kingmaker. On Sunday evening, Mélenchon told his supporters “You must not give a single vote to Marine Le Pen,” but pointedly stopped short of asking people to support Macron. Instead, Mélenchon said “The fight continues.”
Politico Europe noted “It’s not clear that Mélenchon or his supporters really want to appoint a king.”
Far left, far right agree!
While Mélenchon's criticism of Le Pen would be interpreted as tacit support for Macron, the overlap between the far left and far right in France makes things complicated. Politico Europe noted "Both him and Le Pen have campaigned on cost of living, targeting voters who have felt sidelined by globalization and who increasingly resent Macron’s economically liberal agenda... While the far-left candidate wants to block the far right and is closer to Macron on some major issues like renewable energy development, his anti-EU, anti-NATO and isolationist stances also share some themes with Le Pen’s message.”
The Politico Europe report quoted the results of an opinion poll on Sunday that noted 44 per cent of Mélenchon's supporters may abstain in the second round, the highest of any of the candidates who fell short in the first round. “Among the rest, a third would back Macron, while nearly a quarter would go for Le Pen,” the report said.
A high abstention rate could help Le Pen gain ground. According to surveys, Macron won backing from about 50 per cent of Mélenchon’s base in the second round of the 2017 election. However, the far-left vote base has since become disenchanted with Macron's policies on the economy and social welfare.
Outreach
Interestingly, Macron announced on Monday that he wanted to reach out to environmentally conscious voters, in an attempt to woo Mélenchon's supporters. Last week, Le Pen hinted she could appoint leftwing figures in her government if they believed in her agenda.
Intriguingly, the nature of their respective vote bases would also worry Macron and Le Pen. The Guardian reported a study published last week showed Macron “who in 2017 became France’s youngest head of state since Napoleon, had his biggest support come from the oldest voters, aged 70 and over, while Mélenchon was most popular among 24 to 34-year-olds. Le Pen’s greatest support came from 50 to 59-year-old voters”.