One year since the Russian troops rolled into Ukraine, the offensive is far from over. As the US and European allies pump money and artillery into Ukraine, the end is nowhere in sight.
"Things clearly have not gone the way Russian President Vladimir Putin had planned. That said, Putin is probably not expecting an immediate victory in Ukraine now. He is expecting cracks to develop within the NATO, within the US and the European support to Ukraine; he is expecting this to tire out the Ukrainians too," says Happymon Jacob, JNU Professor and Founder, Council for Strategic and Defense Research.
At the end of the day, Jacob says, Putin knows only the Russians will have the stomach to continue on with a protracted war that might extend into a few years.
The US, on the other hand, is expecting to see a weakened Russia—faced with international isolation, a weakened military and economy. Currently, the Russians might opt for a limited offensive and will push hard in the spring offensive that is likely coming. "2023 is important because Russia is expecting a strong push-back from Ukraine, flush with money and ammunition from the West," Jacob says.
Neither side is likely to come to the negotiating table this year.
The beginning
In early February 2022, satellite images released by the US showed Russian troops being deployed at the border with Belarus. This came shortly ahead of Russia's planned 'joint drills' with Belarus, which the NATO alerted as the biggest deployment of Russian troops since the Cold War. Amid high tensions, the West accused Russia of planning the invasion of Ukraine, and threatened severe sanctions. On February 22, 2022, Putin ordered Russian troops into Luhansk and Donetsk—two Russian-backed rebel regions in the southeast of Ukraine. Luhansk and Donetsk are together known as Donbas. This set off alarm bells in the West even as Putin claimed the troops were meant for "peacekeeping". The US responded by imposing sanctions, while Germany put a stop on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.
On February 24, Putin announced the invasion of Ukraine, targetting major Ukrainian cities, including its capital Kyiv. Putin said the "special military operation" is aimed at "demilitarisation" and "denazification" of Ukraine to protect the ethnic Russians. The full-fledged Russian invasion of Ukraine came over eight years after its illegal annexation of Crimea in March 2014. The world still recognises Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk as Ukrainian.
As the war escalated, Putin, in September, announced the annexation of the four partially occupied provinces of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
[For context: Ukraine is divided into 27 administrative divisions, consisting of 24 oblasts (regions), one Autonomous Republic (Crimea), and two cities with special status (Kyiv and Sevastopol).]
Fight for control since February 24, 2022
"The offensive will continue to be focused on the east and southern Ukraine," says Uma Purushothaman, Assistant Professor, Department of International Relations and Politcs, Central University of Kerala. Protecting ethnic Russians is what Putin talked about when he announced the military operation, she reminds.
The annexation or ‘liberation of Donbas’ is significant for Putin because it is Ukraine’s industrial and agricultural belt where all the money lies. "There has been a major miscalculation from the side of the West as well as Ukraine and Russia. I feel the invasion is kind of in a rut, not moving at the pace Putin wanted obviously," she adds.
SOURCE: Institute for the Study of War ( Map on February 20, 2023)
Kyiv: Soon after Putin announced the invasion of Ukraine, Russian troops arrived at the outskirts of capital Kyiv. To their surprise, they faced stiff resistance. Moscow had majorly misjudged Ukraine, and what unravelled over the next month put the focus on the blunders in Moscow's military planning.
According to reports, Putin had told the troops to seize Kyiv within half a day. The Russians hoped to seize the seat of power or lead the government to flee in panic. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, however, quickly shared a video in which he announced he would not flee. The Russian troops stuck around in the outskirts of the capital and had to retreat, unable to take any territory within the city limits. The battle for Kyiv was the biggest foreign policy blunder in the 22-year rule of Russian President Putin, the Washington Post stated.
Kherson: The Russian offensive has largely been focused on south and east Ukraine. In March 2022, Russian forces seized control of the southern city of Kherson after intense fighting. A strategic port city on the banks of the Dnipro River, Kherson’s access to Odesa and the Black Sea ports made it the biggest win for Russia after the offensive began. The Kherson region shares its borders with Donetsk, Crimea and Black Sea. With Crimea already under its control since 2014, the capture of Kherson city was expected to help Russia move its troops and artillery from Crimea into Ukraine.
In November 2022, however, Russia faced another humiliating setback as it was forced to fully withdraw from Kherson following a Ukrainian counteroffensive. With that, Russia lost the only regional capital it had captured since the beginning of the offensive. Putin might not come for Kyiv again, but Kherson, Purushothaman says.
Zaporizhzhia: The seize of Kherson in March 2022 helped Russia to get control of parts of the Zaporizhzhia region, including control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant along the Dnieper River in southeast Ukraine. This sparked widespread international fears of a nuclear disaster at the Zaporizhzhia facility—Europe’s largest nuclear plant. Russian forces occupying the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant have turned the site into a military base to launch attacks against Ukrainian positions. In January this year, Russian forces launched an offensive and the region has been witnessing intense fighting.
Mariupol: The siege of this port city started in February 2022 and lasted till mid-May 2022, eventually falling into Russian hands. In the weeks of heavy bombardment, Russia destroyed a maternity hospital and a historic drama theatre—killing thousands of civilians. Ukrainian forces said at least 20,000 civilians were killed by the Russian forces, making it possibly the worst humanitarian catastrophe of the war. Mariupol is strategically placed between Crimea and Donbas, providing Russia a 'land-bridge' between the regions. It was expected to play a decisive role in Russia's mission to seek full control of the Donbas and southern region of Ukraine. Mariupol, the biggest port in the Sea of Azov (part of the Black Sea), also gives Russia a maritime advantage. Mariupol has been a key export hub for Ukraine's steel, coal and corn.
Kharkiv: Despite attempts from the Russian troops, the city of Kharkiv has not come under Moscow's control yet. Ukraine's second largest city, merely 25 miles from Russia, has been the target of one of the fiercest battles since the invasion began. Soon after the start of the Russian invasion in February 2022, the troops managed to take control but was expelled by the unexpectedly strong Ukrainian forces in September. Ukrainian forces recaptured Izyum, a strategic hub in the Kharkiv oblast. This has been Ukraine’s most significant military success since the Battle of Kyiv in March, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The Russian-speaking city, with a population of 1.5 billion people, continues to put up a fight as Russia continues bombardment.
Bakhmut: Amid multiple setbacks, the seize of the salt-mine town of Soledar came as a significant win for Russia. Soledar is situated 20 kilometres from the town of Bakhmut where intense fighting is still on. Russia has maintained that the capture of Soledar and Bakhmut is key to capturing the east. Bakhmut allows access to larger cities farther west in the Donbas, such as Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, which are more important, according to reports. The capture of Bakhmut will be a shot in the arm for Putin, as the war completes one year, says Purushothaman.
However, according to the ISW, the stubborn Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut itself, despite the cost in Ukrainian lives and material, would prevent Putin from even claiming that Russia has secured that city on the war’s anniversary. Russian forces have only gained about 500 square kilometres in the Bakhmut area since July 4, 2022, the ISW stated.
