Eighteen months after the 2021 coup that saw General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the head of the armed forces of Sudan, deposing the civilian administration, Sudan has once again plunged into unrest.
The military and para-military forces, Rapid Support Forces, (RSF) clashed on the streets of Khartoum on Saturday, killing over 56 people. The conflict continued on Sunday as the RAF, a friend-turned-foe of the Army, claims to have taken control of Khartoum’s official sites, including the presidential palace, the main airport, state TV and other key sites. However, Army has denied the claims.
As fighting rages on, whether or not Africa’s third-largest country will plunge into a civil war depends on two important figures; General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and RSF head Mohamed Hamdan Dagolo aka Hemeti.
The 2019 coup
General al-Burhan rose to power in Sudan in 2019 when he led the military coup that ousted Omar Hassan Ahmad al-Bashir, the former authoritarian ruler of Sudan, who now languishes in prison.
General al-Burhan, on behalf of the ruling military council that comprised the RSF, then signed a power-sharing deal with the civilian opposition alliance. As per the deal, a sovereign council, consisting of six civilians and five generals, will run the country until elections. The two sides agreed to rotate the chairmanship of the council for just over three years.
As for Hemeti, his claim to fame was being the head of the notorious janjaweed militias responsible for crushing the revolt in Darfur. Hemeti too was close to al-Bashir and in 2013 was selected to head the newly-created RSF. However, he switched sides and aligned with al-Burhan to carry out the coup against al-Bashir in 2019.
Since then, the RSF has been working independently from the army, competing with the military for state assets, foreign patrons, legitimacy and recruits.
The 2021 coup
When the Western world and the country were hoping to move towards democracy, General al-Burhan struck again. In 2021, instead of handing over the power to the civilian administration as per the pact, the army chief carried out another coup that ousted the civilian government and its prime minister. He had the support of RSF, though Hemeti later said he regretted doing so.
After the coup, al-Burhan and Hemeti became the leader and deputy leader, respectively, of Sudan.
The infighting
For both the coup, al-Burhan's military was aided by the RSF and Hemeti. The council of generals formed after the 2021 coup was run with the military men at the helm.
But the alliance between the military and RSF turned sour soon. General al-Burhan and Hemeti had a public fallout over several issues, including plans to merge the RSF into the army.
Talks were progressing in this direction but the negotiations were triggering tensions too. Both sides deployed extra troops and equipment to military camps in Khartoum and across the country.
The international community hoped that the forces would sign a new agreement which would usher in elections and initiate reforms in the security sector. Both the military and the RSF were forced to come up with a Framework agreement almost five months ago, which became the source of the latest conflict.
"The Framework Agreement brought to the fore key existential issues for both forces and their leaderships, such as [RSF] integration into a single army, military divestment from lucrative sectors of the economy and the prospect of [soldiers] facing justice for past abuses," Jonas Horner, an independent consultant, told Al Jazeera.
"Most of all … the two forces feared being left weaker than the other."
This might have triggered the current unrest, though the precise reason for the latest clashes is unclear.
However, Hemeti blames General al-Burhan for the violence now engulfing Sudan. "We are sorry to be fighting our countrymen, but this criminal is the one who forced us to do it," he told Al Jazeera in an interview.