Prime Minister Narendra Modi is making his first state visit to the United States from June 21 to 24. One of the key areas of discussion between Modi and the US President Joe Biden will be the future of the Indo-Pacific and the role the two democracies can play. On June 8, the White House said the discussions between Modi and Biden would centre around strengthening their commitment to a free, open, prosperous and secure Indo-Pacific.
Last month, as the G7 summit came to an end in Hiroshima, two statements were put out by the group, blaming Chinese policies in the Indo-Pacific, especially on Taiwan. Modi, who attended the summit as a special invitee, also took part in the meeting of leaders of the Quad (India, US, Australia and Japan) held on the sidelines of the G7 summit. While the Quad statement did not name China, it made a thinly-veiled criticism against Beijing, calling for peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific.
Free flow of goods, ideas and people in the Indo-Pacific, across land, sea and cyberspace is a key priority for India and the United States. At a recent briefing offered to a panel of journalists from India and Taiwan in Washington, D.C., organised by the East West Center in association with the US embassy in India, US State Department officials explained how democracies like India and Taiwan could join hands to build connectivity within the region and beyond. THE WEEK spoke to experts about China offering an alternative to the democratic form of governance and how it has affected the Indo-Pacific strategy of democracies like India, the US and Taiwan. They agree that maintaining the primacy of democracy in the Indo-Pacific will be a key challenge for members of the Quad, especially as democratic regression is taking place at an alarming rate in the Indo-Pacific.
Edited excerpts from the interviews:
1) How important is democracy as a tool for the Indo-Pacific strategy, especially for India, Taiwan and the US?
Niranjan Sahoo, senior fellow, Observer Research Foundation, Delhi
Defending democracy in Indo-Pacific region, particularly against the growing threats from authoritarian powers like China, is the centrepiece of the Quad and related initiatives led by the US. As the region’s biggest democracy and a neighbour to China, India’s geopolitical significance as a countervailing power against China’s authoritarian interferences is quite significant. Taiwan, meanwhile, remains the lynchpin of the Indo-Pacific democracy project. With Chinese President Xi Jinping constantly issuing threats about forcible “reunification”, Taiwan remains the “first line of defence for democracy” in the Indo-Pacific region. Taiwan’s growing clout as a financial/tech powerhouse and as a vibrant liberal democracy next to an authoritarian China, continues to rankle Beijing. Given New Delhi’s ongoing struggle to keep its borders safe from the Chinese aggression, Taiwan has a major bearing on India’s reaction to the Indo-Pacific initiatives led by the US.
Jabin T. Jacob, associate professor, Shiv Nadar University
The importance of democracy as a tool for the Indo-Pacific strategy varies from country to country. As a concept, it sounds nice and it is certainly used as a rationale for the Quad, but I doubt whether weakening democracy would be a deal-breaker as long as everyone is united on countering a clearly authoritarian China and its influence.
Avinash Godbole, associate professor, O.P. Jindal Global University
Democracy is important, but it will be used in a more subtle manner as things stand, since an alliance based on democracy may be consolidated by the Chinese Communist Party for its domestic purpose to argue that China is being encircled. However, if China were to promote the superiority of the Chinese system, then one might see the idea of democratic cooperation being promoted more vigorously. China did that to some extent during Covid, saying that it had managed the pandemic better than western democracies, before China was hit by the Omicron wave in Fall of 2022, but it was muted.
Joshy M. Paul, research fellow, Centre for Airpower Studies, Delhi
Democracy is a defining factor in bringing 'same-minded' regional countries together to preserve the rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific. This is very important as the most powerful country in the region wants to change the status quo unilaterally by undermining the democratic norms existing in international politics and establish its domestic order of single party dominance at the regional level. To address China's challenge, former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe propounded the 'Democratic Security Diamond' in 2012, which later took the form of 'Quad'. The US has a security commitment for Taiwan's democracy while India will survive with its democratic principles. However, if China attacks and annexes Taiwan, then the Chinese system could become a role model for many of the democratic elites in Asia, including India.
2) How serious is the threat of democratic regression in the Indo-Pacific? Will it allow China to press forward its ‘alternative model of governance’?
Niranjan Sahoo
Democratic regression in the Indo-Pacific is quite alarming. As per the V-Dem report, between 2019 to 2022, the percentage of political regimes experiencing democratic backsliding vastly surpassed those making democratic advancement. Data indicates that democratic recession is much more pronounced in populous democracies such as India and Indonesia among others. Overall, both the number and the percentage of people living under autocratic-leaning regimes and autocratic regimes have reached record high levels. This, in some sense, has revived the old debate of the growing appeal of politico-governance model reliant on authoritarianism/strongman rule. In this regard, China’s authoritarian-capitalist model of producing breathtaking economic and technological transformations has gained stronger currency among many countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America. While it is too early to say whether Beijing’s centralised political model will gain global acceptance, it nonetheless is gaining traction globally. This is a major of concern for the democracy project in the Indo-Pacific.
Jabin T. Jacob
Democratic backsliding is a real threat, including in the world's wealthiest democracy, the US. The more democracies like the US and India are caught not practising what they preach, the lesser credibility they have for their foreign policy approaches and narratives. China will be seen, by comparison, as the less hypocritical power. But this is only part of the advantage accruing to China. Given the economic inefficiencies in India and increasingly poor infrastructure in the US and the crony capitalism in both democracies, China will also look like it is the more efficient economic system as well as one that is able to keep rabid capitalism in check as it has done with the crackdown on the excesses of its tech industry. Such control or regulation over their tech industry and big corporates are practically impossible in democratic US and India.
Avinash Godbole
China already uses gun violence in the US to showcase the faults in the US system. Democratic regression actually means other countries start to look like China where there is development but at the cost of political freedom. If this continues, it may help China justify its model. Even otherwise, China uses inequality, slow pace of development and other issues in democracies to justify its model, but that is more for its own people. Domestic legitimacy is still the primary goal of the Chinese Communist Party.
Joshy M. Paul
China has consistently accused the Indian democracy of being a flawed model. The 'alternative model of governance' by China has been there in the horizon for a long time but as long as the Indian polity is diversified in terms of cast, religion and region, implementing the Han-style Chinese model in India would be a difficult task, although not impossible. If the BJP continues its hold on power for another decade, then it could try and implement the 'one party-one leader' model, although not a replica of the Chinese system.
3) Can India work with Taiwan and the US on countering the anti-democracy narrative?
Niranjan Sahoo
Since Taiwan is a first line of defence for democracy in Indo-Pacific, India has huge stakes in what happens to Taiwan. Preserving Taiwan’s territorial sovereignty and safeguarding its democracy is of mutual interest to the US, world’s oldest and most powerful democracy and India, world’s largest and geopolitically most significant democracy in Indo-Pacific region. Management of the Taiwan case is a test case for Quad and liberal democratic order.
Jabin T. Jacob
There is a lot that countries can do to shape narratives, but, ultimately, narratives fall apart if there is little substance backing them. So, while India can work with Taiwan and the US to highlight the failings and hypocrisies of China's economic and political systems, the democracies will need to present a better version of themselves to China and the world to be truly successful in countering China's malign influence.
Avinash Godbole
It is possible, but given India’s ongoing problems with China, it may not happen at the official level. Civil society, media and academic dialogues on the vibrancy of Taiwanese democracy and democratic governance, in general, are possible. A meeting of MPs at a neutral location may be a viable idea at this point in time.
Joshy M. Paul
Since India shares a long land boundary with China, the political and strategic community is not supporting an open pro-Taiwan stand allied with the US position on Taiwan. India can work with the US and Taiwan on the technology field, including defence and semiconductors, and make both countries more interdependent than the India-China economic interaction. A Sino-Indian decoupling will help India lean more towards Taiwan, which could herald a new beginning in India-Taiwan relations. Once that happens, then India can join Taiwan and the US to counter the Chinese narrative.
4) What is the impact of the Ukraine war on India’s Taiwan strategy?
Niranjan Sahoo
Given India’s close defence and strategic dependence on Russia, the outcome of Ukraine war has a lot of ramifications on India’s Taiwan strategy. It is largely Russia’s growing closeness with China owing to Ukraine war that has forced India to be less vocal and somewhat circumspect about China’s growing interferences in Taiwan. This is something to watch out.
For the US, China’s forcible seizure of Taiwan can be a big blow to Washington’s ability to defend freedom and democracy across the world. While this will have a chilling effect globally, Taiwan crisis can be a dangerous flashpoint in India’s part of the world, particularly the Indo-Pacific.
Jabin T. Jacob
The Taiwan situation is quite different from that of Ukraine. India is unlikely not to have a position in the eventuality of a Taiwan crisis; it did get involved diplomatically in previous crises in the Taiwan Strait. It is much more economically connected to the region than it was in the past. However, of the four countries of the Quad, India is the least capable currently of making a difference to Taiwan, but this does not mean that India cannot do anything. It could expand political and economic ties, including the quick conclusion of a free trade agreement or its equivalent. It could also build habits of consultation with Quad members on possible contingencies and how it might help prevent them or work at ameliorating them. Meanwhile, a US failure to come to the aid of Taiwan militarily in the case of an attack by China would mean the end of US credibility in the international system and the end of the US-led world order. So there would be no Quad at all if this happens. However, in the meantime, Quad countries could do a lot to signal determination to prevent a similar fate as Ukraine's befalling Taiwan. The war in Ukraine should teach India and other democracies the importance of backing talk of support for democracy with action.
Avinash Godbole
The Ukraine war has made Quad stronger already. Rules-based order, stability and sovereignty are permanent concerns and relate to Chinese unilateral behaviour towards changing the status quo over issues of sovereignty in Asia. Agreements over chip manufacturing and other technological cooperation between India and Taiwan are on the rise and seem to be fast-tracked for investments which is a highly encouraging sign. China’s response to G20 and its events in Srinagar may be key signs to guess the possible Indian responses.
Joshy M. Paul
India looks at the Ukraine war from an entirely different perspective from that of the US. India thinks it has nothing to do with the democracy versus autocracy narrative, but a fight for preserving a strategic backyard. The Quad is against China's unilateral approach in the Indo-Pacific, and Taiwan's status has not been part of the Quad's agenda so far. But China's actions will surely influence the Quad as to what might be next on Beijing's agenda, will it be the Senkaku Islands? Then Tawang? As of now, Quad has a limited role on the Taiwan issue, but it is a major problem in the Indo-Pacific because China's next action will determine in which way China settles the Taiwan problem, diplomatically or militarily. As of now it seems that China has adopted an 'intimidation' strategy. In this situation, Quad has to become stronger to convey the message to Beijing that Taiwan will not succumb to the 'acquiesce by intimidation' model.