Even a week after the August 6 deadline set by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), passed for Niger coup leaders to reinstate the country's ousted President Mohammed Bazoum, the 15-nation bloc has not taken any military action against the junta.
According to analysts quoted by Associated Press, the coup leaders seemingly gained the upper hand over ECOWAS which has ordered the deployment of a standby force to restore constitutional rule in Niger. Of the 15 member nations, Nigeria, Benin, Senegal and Ivory Coast said they would contribute troops.
However, there is no clear sign of when and if this standby force will be deployed. Some analysts feel it could take weeks or months. Ulf Laessing, head of the Sahel program at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, told AP, “It looks the putschists have won and will stay ... The putschists are holding all the cards and have cemented their rule.”
Laessing said the regional bloc is unlikely to intervene militarily and risk a civil war in the country. However, he opined that ECOWAS and Western countries may push the new regime into following a short transition period.
He said Europe and the US has no choice but to give in to the junta in order to continue the anti-terrorist cooperation with Niger, where they have invested hundreds of millions of dollars in military assistance. Niger is seen as one of the last partners in the Sahel region to tackle growing insurgency fueled by al-Qaida and the Islamic State.
ECOWAS defense chiefs in the region were set to hold a meeting to discuss the standby force. However, it has been delayed indefinitely. Nate Allen, an associate professor at the Africa Centre for Strategic Studies, said this show that ECOWAS wants to avoid the use of force unless necessary, the report said.
Moreover, the African Union, which is expected to hold a meeting on Monday, could override ECOWAS decision to take military action if it is seen as a security threat to the continent.
On the other hand, Russia said any military intervention in Niger would lead to a "protracted confrontation" and destabilise the Sahel region as a whole, reported BBC.
Earlier, ECOWAS Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security Abdel-Fatau Musah told CNN, “We are determined to stop it, but ECOWAS is not going to tell the coup plotters when and where we are going to strike. That is an operational decision that would be taken by the heads of state who are going to be like the commanders in chief of this operation.”
French foreign ministry has also extended support to ECOWAS in its move to topple the junta in Niger.
