The United States intelligence agencies, in multiple reports, had warned of a possible escalation of violence in Israel days before Hamas launched the brutal attack across the border. It is, however, unclear if any of this classified intelligence was shared with Israel, which provides the US with much of the intelligence from the strife-torn region.
According to a report by the New York Times, the first of the intelligence reports, published by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) on September 28, described the possibility that Hamas would launch rockets into Israel. The second report which analysed the findings was published on October 5 and circulated among policy makers. Quoting sources, the CNN reported that on October 6, a day before the attack, an intelligence report indicated “unusual activity” by Hamas.
The reports were based on inputs the CIA collected or received from “partner services”. However, while most reports pointed at the possibility of a rocket attack, they did not warn of an incursion of the scale that was witnessed last Saturday when Hamas took Israel by surprise and barged into its border villages, killing thousands and taking over 150 people as hostages. Hamas launched a barrage of rockets into Israel from Gaza on October 7, followed by its deadliest-ever attack in the history of Israel. The Middle East region plunged into crisis as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed revenge and declared a state of war.
Intelligence failure?
It is still unclear why the US intelligence and the Israeli intelligence, considered one of the strongest in the world, failed to foresee the massive level of preparation by Hamas militants. Experts said it is likely that they misjudged the Hamas's capabilities or that the militant outfit may also have found ways to prevent agencies from monitoring their conversations.
US officials believe that Hamas planned the massive operation in an old-fashioned way—with in-person meetings and limiting electronic communication.
Interestingly, the NYT report also states that the intelligence agency did not brief either of the reports to US President Joe Biden or the White House. The CIA did not highlight the findings as being of 'particular significance'.
“Several US officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter, described the reports as routine, and similar to other intelligence reports about the possibility of Palestinian violence that were written throughout the year,” NYT reported. For many years, US intelligence agencies have not made Hamas or the Gaza Strip a top priority, compared to other threats that they have tracked far more closely, including China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Al Qaeda and the Islamic State, it stated.
“If we had known or if we know of a pending attack against an ally, we would clearly inform that ally,” Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said on Friday.
An unnamed senior Arab official told the CNN that their country repeatedly warned the US and Israel about growing anger in Palestine that was at a dangerous pitch. “But they never listened.”
