Hamas needs Gazans’ tears for its political and financial benefits.
After every Israel-Hamas war, there has always been a truce via Egypt. After the October 7 massacre, however, Hamas has lost the option of negotiation.
Hamas has no legitimacy to represent Palestinians. Hamas rules Gaza, and uses the people who elected it as a human shield against Israel.
Israel has no intention of invading and staying in Gaza for good. After eliminating Hamas and the Palestine Islamic Jihad, it will hand over Gaza to the Palestinian National Authority led by Mahmoud Abbas. However, the size and shape of Gaza will change.
Armed groups supported by Iran—such as the Hezbollah, Houthis, PIJ, Kata’ib Hezbollah—and many other militias in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon may join hands with Hamas, al-Qaeda, Islamic State, Muslim Brotherhood in the war against Israel. Several of them enjoy the support of Turkey and Qatar, besides Iran. The war will then spread to the entire Middle-east and impact western nations.
Hamas can be effectively countered only by cutting off worldwide financial flow to religious indoctrination. Those who believe that IS and al-Qaeda can be eliminated are living in a dream world. After IS lost its territory in Syria and Iraq, its mainstream leadership vanished into Turkey and Iran. Its resources were then reused to fight in Libya, in the Azerbaijan-Armenia war and in the Ukraine-Russia war.
IS has a strong presence in the Sinai peninsula in Egypt close to the Israeli border. The al-Qaeda leadership is still operating from Iran and there is a Syrian city still under its control.
Following the bombing of Gaza, there is no doubt a dent in the Saudi-Israel relations. But Saudi Arabia knows that the October 7 massacre was intended to wreck these relations. The Arab countries that signed the Abraham Accords are angry but they have deep political and financial interests to keep the accords alive.
Israel does not really trust its neighbour Egypt because Hamas gets all Iranian weapons through the Egyptian border. Not that Egypt provides the weapons; it has closed one eye to let Hamas to get the weapons.
The world must understand that the aim of every terrorist organisation is to create fear, chaos and instability in the region, country and area they operate in. They not only target an enemy population but also target or endanger the lives of the population they rule over to achieve political goals.
The United States does not want the people of Gaza to suffer, and neither does Israel, and this is why Israel has requested the Palestinians of the Northern Gaza to move south in order not to be harmed in military operation. The US is monitoring the IDF operation very closely and providing every necessary assistance but also wants Israel to abide the rules of war in that military operation, which Israel is following as always. The actual role of the US will start after the Gaza invasion by the IDF and that would be the crucial and game changing role. Time will tell.
Noor Dahri is executive director of a UK-based think tank
