"If the government does not effectively manage the incidents happening in the border region, the country will be split into various parts," Myint Swe, president of Myanmar's State Administration Council, was quoted as telling a national defence and security council meeting. The statement comes after intensified fighting between the army and "rebel" groups.
According to the BBC, the government forces are suffering "big losses" and the rebels are gradually turning the tide. What is happening in Myanmar? Here is explaining the latest developments that suggest the tables are gradually turning in favour of the pro-democracy groups
1. Military rule in Myanmar -- a look back: Myanmar has been in turmoil since the 2021 coup when the generals of the junta (a committee of military leaders) ousted an elected government led by democracy champion Aung San Suu Kyi.
2. Myanmar unrest -- the belligerents: The military is now battling groups of pro-democracy groups and ethnic minority insurgents. The 'Wa' troops are ethnic to the Shan State, the 'Arakan Army' from the Rakhine State, the 'MNDAA' of the ethnic Chinese Kokangs, and the TNLA of the Palaung community of the hills are some of the groups that are giving the army a hard time in the conflict zones. For most of these groups, the ultimate goal is reportedly to earn guarantees of statehood and constitutional privileges for their communities under a federal system.
Then there is the National Unity Government (NUG) set up by the democratic administration expelled by the coup. NUG is backed by ethnic forces like the Karen, the Kachin, the Karenni and Chin, media reports said.
3. The recent setbacks for the government troops: The fightings were reported in Myanmar's border regions with China, Reuters reported. The army is engaged in battles with the rebels in the north, northeast, northwest and southeast, it added.
According to the BBC, three ethnic insurgent armies in Shan State, with the backing of pro-democracy and anti-junta outfits, overrun dozens of military posts. This resulted in the government losing control of border crossings and trade routes with China, the report said.
Brigadier General Aung Kyaw Lwin, who is the commander of government forces in northern Shan State, is said to be among the casualties suffered by the government forces in the recent fighting. Despite air support and artillery fire, the Myanmar Army remains unable to recapture the lost posts, the BBC added.
4. The troublesome Shan State: According to the BBC, the Shan State is "a huge, lawless region bordering Thailand and China." Multiple units of the Myanmar Army surrendered in Shan after the rebels managed to block reinforcements from reaching their cut-off colleagues.
5. Understanding the context of Myint Swe's warning: The junta has in recent days lost control of some trading towns on the border with China to an alliance of guerrilla factions. There have also been numerous reports of clashes elsewhere between the military and opposition fighters.
6. What is China doing? Earlier, China used to help the junta with intelligence inputs, but the law and order situation in Shan has irked Beijing as the leaders of the coup took little measure to stop the casino and drug boom in Shan. This also hit the military campaign negatively, reports said.
China's foreign ministry on Thursday has advised Chinese citizens in Myanmar to avoid going out in areas with "fierce" conflicts.