Hooded thugs ruled the streets of Ecuador. Assaults and robberies took place everywhere; there were armed people opening fire in the streets, and people on motorcycles spraying machine gun fire. All these just in the 24 hours leading to the on-air takeover of a TV channel by armed gangs.
When news that the terrorist act was live on television, Guayaquil, one of the largest ports in South America went into a citywide shock, a collective impact that led to a wave of criminality that swept the nation, says notable Ecuadorian sociologist Cesar Aizaga Castro, speaking exclusively THE WEEK. These descriptions are his first-hand experience as lawlessness descended on the streets of the Andean nation that just a few years back was a haven of peace and safety in Latin America.
From a vantage point in the Nueva Prosperina suburb's sector Divino Nino of Guayaquil, he could see families under siege by masked and balaclava-clad adolescents with firearms, assaulting passersby, families, other adolescents, and anyone in the streets. That, he says, generated a state of an anemic crisis in Ecuadorian society with rumors flying about parts of the city to avoid due to shootings, kidnappings, car hijackings, robberies and worse. It was understood that the police were prevented from entering areas controlled by criminal elements.
This left the population in a state of anxiety, says Aizaga. There was no effective response by the state and the people asked out loud what do to in such a dire situation.
Riots broke out in the major cities of the stunned nation as families found themselves desperately sharing information on how to evade the waves of motorcycle gangs assaulting people and marauders taking anything of value from anyone, anywhere.
From Argentina to Mexico, the region is concerned that this uncontrolled criminality is a mere prelude to greater terror about to commence. Peru and Colombia have sent troops to reinforce their borders with Ecuador as gunfire echoed through city blocks in Guayaquil and Quito.
An eerie discomfort is still upon the cities with most businesses still closed. The entire country is in a state of collective shock—shaken to its core at the sight of the crumbling social order, holding its breath, waiting apprehensively for whatever calamity could come next. Ecuador is descending rapidly into a gruesome display of depravity unleashed.
The country's young president, 35-year-old Daniel Noboa—barely a few months in office—is desperately trying to assert control amid a spiral of narco-fueled bloodshed and ever-growing brazen attacks on the state.
The security crisis at the national level has forced the Ecuadorian government to make the decision to implement a state of "internal armed conflict" to combat drug-criminal groups. By any name, however, the country was in an open civil war.
Noboa met with a cabinet of experts and the US ambassador analyzing a whole set of hostile acts that preceded the television takeover, including vehicle explosions, open gunfire, and hostage-taking of prison guards in different prisons across the country as crime bosses and ringleaders resisted transfer to higher security prisons.
Noboa declared a nationwide state of emergency, severely restricting civil liberties and deploying the military to quell what the president called "narco-terrorist" groups.
But Aizaga questions how effective a solution that is, pointing out that since 2021 there have been reports of "Narco Generals" in the country's military and law enforcement.
"How is it possible to deploy the military on the community without first rooting out the drug-trafficking generals in its ranks?" asks Aizaga.
“There is a lack of control, regulation, or transparency over the actions of the state with respect to its prisons from where one of the most dangerous gangsters in the country escaped a few days ago before the terrorist events,” said Aizaga. Drug kingpin and notorious gang leader Adolfo 'Fito' Macias Villamar disappeared just before a planned transfer to a more secure and secluded area of the maximum security prison.
The prison breaks prompted Noboa to finally declare a state of emergency to deploy the military to regain control. But the move also triggered a wave of reprisal attacks and unrest. Criminal mobs openly taunt the government's weakness and inability to maintain order.
The state of emergency signals a recognition that the regular security forces alone cannot overcome heavily armed and entrenched criminal militias. Deploying the military effectively doubles the country's law enforcement power and shows the gravity of the threat, says the government. But also risks backlash and human rights abuses.
A crumbling prison system
At the core of Ecuador's breakdown in public order is the total loss of control over its detention facilities. The country's prisons have essentially become criminal fiefdoms dominated by powerful groups like Los Choneros and Los Lobos, groups that have claimed responsibility for the assassination of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio last August.
These gangs recruit thousands of members, coordinate drug trafficking operations, stockpile heavy weapons, and perpetrate mass riots and killings from behind bars. Over 300 inmates have been murdered in prison violence since 2021.
When masked gunmen stormed the TV studio and held the staff hostage live on air, the incident demonstrated how little fear these mafia groups have of police and military forces that are supposed to keep society safe.
Prison authorities were either complicit or powerless to stop incarcerated kingpins like Macias from running their criminal empires, observed Aizaga. Macias and other high-profile convicts have been previously reported to stroll out of supposedly maximum-security facilities at will.
Guards are outgunned, outmanned, and succumb to bribes and threats. Some have been abducted or killed for resisting the gangs' demands. With its porous prisons, Ecuador is powerless to disrupt organised crime.
This breakdown has created a culture of lawlessness and impunity. Criminals operate with near total freedom, while citizens lose faith in governmental authority. The social fabric unravels amidst the perception that drug lords and killers face no consequences.
ALSO READ: Ecuador's escalating security crisis: A nation plagued by uncontrolled violence
How did it get to this?
How did the island of peace and stability of Latin America come to this?
As inflation ravaged weakening the country's economy and government, the decision was made in 2000 to adopt the US dollar as its currency. With dollars as legal tender, currency controls disappeared and soon suitcases full of cash began to pour into the country from its two cocaine-trafficking neighbors, Peru and Colombia.
As the money flowed, large dollar-based bribes soon began to corrupt the police, the military, politics, and legal systems of the country, In the short run, the bribes took the form of drugs instead of cash, giving rise to drug trafficking in the country that did not previously produce or trade drugs.
ALSO READ: How Ecuador became a safe haven for the world's dirty money
With Colombian and Mexican cartels paying local Ecuadorian gangs to facilitate trafficking, the cash flow has financed the arming and expansion of homegrown organised crime. Ecuador's domestic drug market has also boomed, further fueling violence in cities as gangs compete.
Cartels, gangs, mafias grew in power, asserting control over prisons, neighborhoods, and seeking to control all of the country's institutions.
Contract killings and murder went from rare to usual, to an everyday thing. In 2018 Ecuador had an index of 5.8 homicides per 1,00,000 inhabitants. By 2022, it had grown to 27, a 362 per cent increase in just four years.
The comparison with two neighbouring countries, similarly ravaged by criminality, is even more stunning. Mexico went from 29.6 homicides per 1,00,000 in 2018 to 26.1 in 2022, a decrease of 11.8 per cent. El Salvador, a country that Noboa seems to be leaning to emulate in his response, went from 53.3 homicides per 100,000 in 2018 to 7.8 in 2022, an 85.4 per cent decrease.
ALSO READ: Battle for Guayaquil
Expanding political violence
But beyond just trafficking drugs, Ecuador's newly empowered criminal syndicates are now actively working to undermine the country's democracy and governance. There are at least 21 identified criminal organisations operating in the country, including Mexican and Colombian cartels, the Mara Salvatrucha gang, the Tren de Arara international prison gang, the Albanian mafia, the Cosa Nostra, and local drug trafficking gangs like Los Choneros and Los Lobos that control the country's penitentiaries.
Gangs have resorted to assassinations, bombings, and kidnappings of officials to bully and coerce the government. They want impunity and to block reforms that threaten their interests.
President Noboa's attempts to crack down spurred this week's massive outbreak of unrest. In response to declaring a state of emergency, gangs launched dozens of attacks and prison riots.
The brazenness of their political violence builds on incidents like the murder of Villavicencio last year. After speaking out against Los Choneros, he was gunned down in public. The suspects were themselves assassinated in prison before facing any trial.
ALSO READ: Ecuadorian presidential candidate Villavicencio assassinated in brazen public ambush
Organised crime has progressed from basic drug trafficking to openly challenging democratic governance and institutions. Their operations now have national security implications.
These gangs now resemble parallel militant groups threatening Ecuador's sovereignty itself. Criminals who once focused on trafficking are evolving into potential insurgents trying to subvert or control the government through fear and violence.
Regional narco nexus
Ecuador's security breakdown is inextricably tied to Latin America's role in the global drug trade. The country is sandwiched between Colombia and Peru, the top cocaine producers on Earth. This geography made Ecuador a natural transit point for exports northward.
As Colombian and Mexican cartels enlisted local gangs to move product, the massive profits financed the arming and expansion of Ecuadorian organised crime. Ecuador has also become a significant drug consumption market in its own right, further fueling urban violence as gangs battle for territory.
Corruption has enabled traffickers to infiltrate and co-opt security forces, judicial systems, and entire state institutions. Lack of border control and weak interdiction capacity compound these vulnerabilities that Ecuador shares with its neighbors.
Narco-money has seeped into the highest levels of Latin American governments, proving corrosive to democracy. While Ecuador represents an extreme case, its dysfunction foreshadows problems facing the region so long as the drug trade persists unchecked.
Searching for solutions
President Noboa won office promising to get security under control. But the recent chaos has put his administration on the defensive. In the wake of recent events, he declared a two-month state of emergency to deploy the military against criminal groups now deemed "narco-terrorists."
On paper, Noboa proposes sweeping security reforms and a crackdown on gangs. But executing this vision will be an uphill battle when basic governance is collapsing, notes Aizaga. Even asserting control over prisons and public spaces seems uncertain given the strength of armed militias.
Walking a tightrope, Noboa must tamp down violence while avoiding actions that could fuel human rights abuses or more unrest, warns Aizaga. If the situation further spirals, his administration will lose all credibility and legitimacy.
Many security forces are known to already collaborate with traffickers, which limits options, notes Aziaga. Neighboring Colombia and Peru have offered assistance, but domestic solutions are still in the making. Ecuador's problems ultimately require deep reforms.
The crisis has brought a reckoning that the state can no longer tolerate "narco-prisons" and institutional corruption. Whether Noboa can purge criminal elements and strengthen judicial capacity remains uncertain. But the consequences of inaction are severe.
Noboa essentially declared war this week against the mafia factions that have flourished for years. Whether he can marshal the resources and resolve to win that war without compromising Ecuador's democratic values remains to be seen.
Without fundamental improvements to rule of law and governance, Ecuador risks becoming a fully criminalized narco-state and further destabilising the region.
While Ecuador may be a particularly acute example, its dysfunctions highlight the corrosive effects of narco-money on democracy and governance across Latin America.
Endemic corruption aids criminal syndicates in infiltrating security forces and institutions. Lack of interdiction capacity and porous borders compound the challenges. These vulnerabilities to organised crime are mirrored throughout Latin America.
The unfolding turmoil provides a warning to other nations in the region struggling to uphold democracy and contain organised crime. Ecuador now confronts the implications of state failure, with reverberations across the Americas.
