Plagued by political and economic uncertainties, Pakistan is all set to elect its new Parliament on February 8, a process that will see no less than 44 political parties vying for a total of 336 seats in the National Assembly, the lower house of Parliament, along with four provincial assemblies.
About 18,000 candidates are in the race for the National Assembly and the four provincial assemblies in Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. According to caretaker Information Minister Murtaza Solangi, over 120 million people are eligible to exercise their right to vote on February 8.
Despite the presence of over 44 political parties, only a few hold sway in the country, including now-jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). Besides the PTI, Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari-led PPP are also in the fray.
And, in this country, which was under martial rule for half its existence, the Army is the major power. It pulls the strings and allegedly picks the Prime Minister depending on his willingness to cooperate.
PML-N led by Nawaz Sharif
From a traditional elite family in Punjab, Nawaz Sharif has made a comeback and is widely anticipated to be the next Prime Minister of Pakistan.
Sharif's PML-N was at the helm of the country from 2013 to 2017 when he was removed from power citing corruption charges. Along with his daughter Maryam, he was sentenced to jail for 10 years in 2018, days before the last national election. However in 2019, after being released on bail, he left for London for treatment. Nawaz returned last year and all legal hurdles have been cleared within months, triggering speculations that the military has handpicked him to be the nation’s next prime minister.
Though Nawaz was missing in action, the PML-N managed to be in power for almost over a year, forming a coalition government with the PPP, after removing Imran Khan's government via a no-confidence vote. The PML-N was headed by Nawaz's brother Shahbaz Sharif. Dubbed the "Lion of Punjab", Nawaz is a vocal advocate of economic liberalisation and free markets and is keen on improving ties with India.
PPP by Bilawal Bhutto
A scion of dynasty politics, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari hopes to return to power for the first time since 2008. This is his second election and he was the foreign minister under PDM rule after Khan’s ouster in 2022. But the party is unlikely to win many seats as it battles setbacks, including its mismanagement during the 2022 flooding in Sindh.
However, the PPP could win enough seats to give them clout with anyone seeking to form a coalition. He offers to advance the Kashmir cause, work for the youth of the country and bring up ambitious plans to combat climate change.
PTI led by Gohar Ali Khan
The PTI, founded by cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan, is currently led by Gohar Ali Khan after Khan's arrest and incarceration.
Though Khan swept the elections in 2018 to become the Prime Minister, with the backing of the Army, he soon fell out of favour with the military and was deposed from office by a no-confidence vote. However, the party still enjoys a huge support base in the country. He waged a campaign of defiance against the ruling dispensation and the Army, which made him a target. However, his arrest and supporters turning on the Army on the May 9 protest was the final straw that broke the camel's broke. He now faces three convictions and is lodged in jail. But, the party continues to carry out campaigning, mostly digitally and through volunteers.
Many voters had identified PTI with its cricket bat electoral symbol but the electoral commission recently banned PTI from using it on the technical grounds that it did not hold an internal leadership election. The decision means the PTI candidates are running without official party affiliation and as independents.
Army
Being a hybrid democracy, the Army, the biggest landowner in Pakistan, yields so much power in selecting the Prime Minister. Going by history, the only free elections ever held without the Army's interference was in 1970, which ended up in the formation of Bangladesh.
From then on, the Army always chose the candidates and is this time keen to keep Imran Khan out of the equation, still angered by the May 9 protests.
“The military establishment believes they need Nawaz Sharif to take the country out of this economic mess,” Absar Alam, a political analyst, told Guardian. "Their project with Imran Khan failed badly, so now they’ve turned back to Sharif who at least has a better economic record. He’s known for investing in infrastructure and creating stability and could help rebuild essential relations with the US, China and India that were harmed badly under Khan."