European Union elections: Far-right surge rattles EU's traditional powers

The outcome showed the bloc's parliament membership has clearly shifted to the right

AP06_10_2024_000094A Lead candidate for the European Commission, current European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen poses during an event at the European People's Party headquarters in Brussels | AP

Far-right parties rattled the traditional powers in the European Union with major gains in parliamentary seats, dealing an especially humiliating defeat to French President Emmanuel Macron, who called snap legislative elections.

Some ballots in the vote for the European Parliament were still being counted Monday, but the outcome showed the 27-nation bloc's parliament membership has clearly shifted to the right. Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni more than doubled her party's seats in the assembly. And despite being hounded by a scandal involving candidates, the Alternative for Germany extreme right party still rallied enough seats to sweep past the slumping Social Democrats of Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Sensing a threat from the far right, the Christian Democrats of EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had already shifted further to the right on migration and climate ahead of the elections  and were rewarded by remaining by far the biggest group in the 720-seat European Parliament and de facto brokers of the ever-expanding powers of the legislature.

But, the surge by nationalist and populist parties across Europe will make it much harder for the assembly to approve legislation on issues ranging from climate change to agriculture policy for the next five years.

Undoubtedly however, the star on a stunning electoral night was the National Rally party of Marine Le Pen, which dominated the French polls to such an extent that Macron immediately dissolved the national parliament and called for new elections to start later this month.

In Germany, the EU's most populous nation, projections indicated that voters had not been dissuaded by the AfD's scandals as it rose to 16.5%, up from 11% in 2019. In comparison, the combined result for the three parties in the German governing coalition barely topped 30%. 

Scholz's governing Social Democratic party was humiliated as the Alternative for Germany surged into second place. After all the prophecies of doom, after the barrage of the last few weeks, we are the second strongest force, a jubilant AfD leader Alice Weidel said. 

Overall across the EU, two mainstream and pro-European groups, the Christian Democrats and the Socialists, remained dominant in the voting that concluded Sunday. The gains of the far right came at the expense of the Greens, who were expected to lose about 20 seats and fall back to sixth position in the legislature. Macron's pro-business Renew group also lost big. 

After having flirted during campaigning with the idea of working with a political group further right, von der Leyen offered late Sunday to build a coalition with the Social Democrats, which mostly held its ground in the elections, and the pro-business Liberals.

"We are by far the strongest party, We are the anchor of stability," von der Leyen said. Reflecting on the rise of the far-right and good showing of the far-left, she added that the result brings great stability for the parties in the center. We all have interest in stability and we all want a strong and effective Europe.

In the legislature, provisional results showed that the Christian Democrats would have 189 seats, up 13, the Social Democrats 135, down 4 and the pro-business Renew group 83, down 19. The Greens slumped to 53, down 18. 

Germany, traditionally a stronghold for environmentalists, exemplified the humbling of the Greens, who were predicted to fall from 20% to 12%. With further losses expected in France and elsewhere, the Greens' defeat could well have an impact on the EU's climate change policies, still the most progressive across the globe.

Senior party members in the EU's parliament were due to hold talks on Monday to see what alliances might be established. Key to the future working of the assembly will be whether the far right unites in a strong enough bloc to challenge the main pro-European groups.

The elections come at a testing time for voter confidence in a bloc of some 450 million people. Over the last five years, the EU has been shaken by the coronavirus pandemic, an economic slump and an energy crisis fueled by Russia's war in Ukraine. But campaigning often focused on issues in individual countries rather than on broader European interests.

Since the last EU election in 2019, populist or far-right parties now lead governments in three nations  Hungary, Slovakia and Italy and are part of ruling coalitions in others including Sweden, Finland and, soon, the Netherlands. 

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