Just as the first presidential debate between Joe Biden and his Republican challenger Donald Trump came to an end, there was a viral comment on social media, that it was like a lying toddler and a nearly dead man arguing with each other. In a way, it summed up the whole debate: Trump confidently repeated lie after lie, while Biden stumbled, his voice hoarse, and his train of thought interrupted. On a few occasions at least, Biden was plainly incoherent. It was clear that Biden fell flat against a much superior performance by Trump.
Both candidates squared off in their first debate of this election season in Atlanta on the night of June 27. Trump agreed to participate in the 90-minute debate organised by CNN, a liberal network with which he has an acrimonious relationship, even as he faced criminal prosecutions over his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results. Despite Trump's obvious handicaps, it was Biden who came up short on the debate stage. His team was forced to explain the disaster, telling reporters that the president appeared tired and sounded hoarse as he was suffering from a "cold".
No wonder there is major panic in the Biden camp. A reporter, upon spotting California governor Gavin Newsom after the debate, asked him whether he was ready to replace Joe Biden as a candidate if asked by the party. Newsom politely declined, saying that he was "very proud of the president.” He said the Democrats were wholly unified behind Biden and that they should not step aside, despite the poor debate performance. But this could be a trailer to the show that is about to unfold within the Democratic Party.
The Biden team agreed to a debate earlier than ever held in presidential history, in an attempt to reframe the context of the race. They wanted to put on stage a stable, reliable president, with several creditable achievements. They wanted to put him side by side with a convicted felon who had sex with a porn star, who tried to overturn an election, and who could potentially destroy American democracy if voted to power once again. However, the move collapsed spectacularly. Rather than dispelling concerns about Biden's age, the debate performance has made it the central issue of the campaign. Biden’s shaky and underwhelming performance has turned the race into a sort of referendum regarding the viability of his candidacy, and it is expected to dominate American politics in the days to come.
Biden’s performance has opened up criticism in his own party as well. Barack Obama’s former strategist David Axelrod said on CNN’s post-debate show that there would be discussions about whether Biden should continue. Axelrod said Biden handled some parts of the debate well, but he felt that voters would be shocked by his voice and demeanour, especially at the start of the debate.
With his voice hoarse, Biden appeared to be rushing through his talking points, and he stumbled badly over some answers. While making a point about Medicare and tax reforms, he completely lost his train of thought. At one point, he even said "we finally beat Medicare," failing to express himself accurately on an issue close to his heart. Such rambling gave Trump several chances to jump in, with powerful retorts. After a long-winding answer on immigration, which is clearly one of Biden’s major policy weaknesses, Trump pounced, “I don’t know what he said at the end. I don’t think he knows what he said."
On abortion rights, one of the most important issues for Democrats in this year’s election, Biden found it hard to explain Roe Vs Wade, the historic Supreme Court judgment that legalised abortion, which was overturned two years ago by the Supreme Court. The court could do so as it has a clear conservative majority now, thanks to the three justices appointed by Trump.
When asked if he supports some restrictions on abortion, Biden said he "supports Roe v. Wade, which had three trimesters. The first time is between a woman and a doctor. Second, time is between a doctor and an extreme situation. A third time is between the doctor, between the women and the state." And the viewers on television, the moderators and even Trump were left baffled. Nobody understood a thing.... As the debate progressed, Biden began to give clearer answers, but, by then, the damage was already done.
And Biden made several tactical blunders as well. For instance, he brought up immigration, the most difficult issue for Democrats, while answering a question about abortion. He spoke about a young woman who was allegedly killed by an undocumented migrant in Georgia in February, handing Trump the advantage.
It was not that Biden went into the debate without preparation. In fact, he had confined himself to nearly a week of "debate camp" with top advisers at the Camp David presidential retreat in Maryland. He had prepared extensively. Unfortunately for Biden, it did not reflect on his performance.
Trump, on the other hand, sailed through the debate with little trouble. In his usual style, he rattled off lies, without being effectively challenged. Rather surprisingly, Biden failed to question Trump's factually inaccurate statements and was simply unable to put him on the defensive. Trump, meanwhile, blunted Biden’s points by leaning into lies and falsehoods about the economy, immigration, the role of America in the world and his innocence in the Capitol Hill riots.
Trump looked and sounded confident, but he was careful to not repeat his excessively overbearing and overconfident conduct which hurt him during his debate with Biden four years ago. He stayed calm, a major achievement for him, despite Biden provoking him, raising several sensitive issues, including his recent felony conviction and the Stormy Daniels affair, and his alleged insult of World War I veterans. Biden repeatedly called him a liar, even made fun of his weight and his golf game. Yet Trump did not take the bait, and there was no meltdown.
At the same time, Trump declined to clearly state that he would accept the results of the presidential polls. After CNN's Dana Bash asked him thrice, Trump said he would accept the results, only if it was a fair and legal and a good election. And he had the audacity to blame Nancy Pelosi for the January 6 riots.
Biden's uninspiring performance is likely to reopen discussions within the Democratic Party whether he should be the nominee at all. Many democrats worry that this will have an impact even beyond the presidential polls. "We're going to lose 20 seats in the House if this goes on," said a Democratic Congressman. Many of them worry that if the Republicans take control of the House and the Senate and Trump wins the White House, it will be the end of American democracy as we know today.
Biden’s performance has also amplified the worry of many voters that, at 81, he is too old to serve as president. It is sure to trigger a fresh round of debate about a replacement candidate. But no incumbent president has dropped out of the race so late in the election season, and no one really knows what would happen if Biden did. Also, in the modern era, no major party has tried to adversarially change their nominee. Democratic Party rules make it almost impossible to replace Biden without his consent, as he has won almost 99% of all primary delegates.
Still, the Democratic party bylaws have some provisions to replace the presidential candidate in case he or she is incapacitated or opts to drop out of the race. But bringing in a fresh candidate so late in the race is a certain recipe for disaster. The Democratic leadership has not forgotten that the last president to decline a second term was from their own party. It happened in 1968 when Lyndon B. Johnson, who became so unpopular because of the Vietnam war, chose to step down.
And it was a voluntary decision. Despite Johnson's unpopularity, the party did not force him out. Subsequently, there was a bitter contest to find a new nominee, and the party chose Johnson's vice president, Hubert Humphrey as its candidate. As the primary season was nearly over, he had to win the nomination in a contested convention. But it did not end happily for Humphrey and the party, as the Republican candidate Richard Nixon won in a landslide.
The next debate is coming up in two months and the Democrats and the Biden strategists would be wondering how to salvage the situation and put their derailed campaign back on track. For them, it is going to be a tough and unforgiving summer.
