The 2024 Iranian presidential elections come at a critical juncture in Iran's contemporary history, shaped by both internal dynamics and external pressures.
Following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter accident, Iran faced both political and economic challenges, especially with the impending succession of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. With these internal socio-economic challenges and geopolitical tensions, this election's outcome is definitely going to have profound implications for Iran's future trajectory.
Iran's political landscape is a complex interplay of religious authority and democratic processes. The President, while elected by popular vote, operates within a framework where ultimate authority rests with the Supreme Leader. This dual structure often results in a delicate balance of power and frequent political tensions.
However, the low turnout in the 2024 elections also indicates the significant divide among the Iranian population. This can be considered to be a huge blow to the theocracy in Iran as the voter turnout has been the lowest since the Iranian revolution in 1979.
None of the four candidates secured a majority of votes. The two leading candidates represented opposite ends of Iran's political spectrum. Masoud Pezeshkian, a reformist member of parliament and unexpected contender, and Saeed Jalili, a hardliner and former nuclear negotiator, came in first and second respectively during the present elections. They will face a run-off on July 5.
For the first time since 1981, neither of the final presidential contenders are clerics, making them ineligible to succeed Supreme Leader Khamenei. Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, the Speaker of Parliament and a former Revolutionary Guards commander, was reportedly the regime's favoured candidate, however, he finished a distant third. The present elections clearly indicate the mandate that the reformist camp remained influential, advocating for greater openness and engagement with the international community. This is against the mandate of the 2020 parliamentary elections wherein conservatives gained significant ground and set the stage for a potentially conservative-dominated presidency.
Iranians headed into this poll amid a backdrop of a struggling economy, widespread public discontent, and severe crackdowns on dissent. The country is also grappling with high inflation, heavy Western sanctions, escalating tensions with the United States, heightened Iranian nuclear enrichment, and the Israel-Hamas conflict. The Iranian economy has faced significant strain due to sanctions imposed by the United States, exacerbating inflation, unemployment, and currency devaluation. The Presidential candidates are under pressure to formulate viable economic strategies to address these issues. While conservatives push for economic resilience through self-reliance and support for domestic industries, reformists emphasize the importance of lifting sanctions and attracting foreign investment.
Iran's youth population, which forms a substantial portion of the electorate, are becoming vocal about demands for greater social and political freedoms. So, issues such as women's rights, freedom of expression, and internet access are critical points of contention. Reformist candidates are more likely to address these concerns, proposing gradual reforms to align Iran's policies with the aspirations of its younger citizens.
Iran's foreign policy remains a polarizing issue. Conservatives have typically advocated for a strong stance against Western intervention and prioritize relations with regional allies such as Russia and China. However, against this, reformists’ agenda has been to push for re-engaging with Europe and the United States to reduce international isolation and economic sanctions. A reformist win could pave the way for significant shifts in both domestic and foreign policies.
Economically, reformists are expected to pursue negotiations to lift sanctions, potentially revitalizing Iran's economy through foreign trade and investment. On the social front, gradual liberalization measures could be introduced, addressing demands for greater freedoms and rights. Internationally, a reformist president would likely seek to re-enter negotiations on the nuclear deal and improve relations with Western countries, which could alter the regional balance of power.
The 2024 Iranian Presidential Elections are pivotal, with far-reaching implications for Iran's future. The election not only reflects the ideological divide within the country but also underscores the complex interplay between domestic aspirations and geopolitical realities.
Whether Iran continues on its current path under conservative leadership or shifts towards reformist policies, the election's outcome will significantly influence the nation's economic stability, social progress, and international relations. As Iran navigates this critical period, the electorate's choice will determine the direction of its policies and the nature of its engagement with the world. The 2024 elections are not merely a contest between candidates but a defining moment that will shape the future of Iran in an increasingly complex global landscape.
Dr Anu Sharma specialises in West Asian Affairs. She is assistant professor at Amity Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, Amity University, NOIDA.
