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Would Donald Trump's victory lead to a Russia-Ukraine peace deal?

Hungary's Orban says the Republican candidate is ready to act as 'peace broker'

Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban (R) poses with former US president Donald Trump at Trump's estate in Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida | AFP

Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s recent meetings with foreign leaders, including those from Russia, China and the US, have irked the EU members. Amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, Orban had visited leaders in a ‘peace mission’ to end the war.

The EU leaders criticised Orban’s plans as they had not been informed about it. Following which, the top EU officials took a stand to boycott the informal meetings hosted by Hungary, which took over the rotating role on July 1. 

After the EU’s decision, Orban wrote a letter to the European Council claiming that Donald Trump has “detailed and well-founded” plans for peace between Russia and Ukraine. 

Last week, Orban had met Trump, for the second time, at his Palm Beach residence in the US. 

In the letter, Orban mentioned that Trump was ready to act as a peace broker “immediately” after the election. 

Can Trump end the Russia-Ukraine war?

The Russia-Ukraine war that began in February 2022 is ongoing without any end in sight. According to the United Nations, over 10,000 civilians and 20,000 others were wounded. Russian troops have claimed many major Ukrainian cities including Kherson, Kharkiv, and Mariupol. 

Pro-Russian leader Orban believes that the Ukraine war can be ended once the Republican candidate Trump wins the US elections. Many experts too opine that there is a high chance that the conflict might get frozen at least if he comes to power. 

Though Russia will not be willing to give away the Ukrainian cities that have already been seized, there is a possibility of negotiations or forming a treaty and ceding Russian-speaking cities bordered with Ukraine. Trump's good relations with Putin definitely give hope of ending the war, say experts.

It is also to be noted that Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's five-year term is soon to end. The future presidential elections and formation of a government remain uncertain as of now.

Orban's letter to EU

In the letter addressed to Council's president, Charles Michel, Orban said that the "likely outcome" of Trump's win means that the EU should reopen “direct lines of diplomatic communication” with Russia and “high-level political talks," reported the Financial Times.

“I am more than convinced that in the likely outcome of the victory of President Trump, the proportion of the financial burden between the US and the EU will significantly change to the EU’s disadvantage when it comes to the financial support of Ukraine,” he wrote.

Though the top leader of the EU boycotted the informal meetings, the formal meetings in Brussels and Luxembourg are expected to continue with the usual attendees.

"The highly unusual decision to have the European Commission president and other top officials of the body boycott the meetings was made 'in light of recent developments marking the start of the Hungarian (EU) presidency," commission spokesperson Eric Mamer said on Monday.

Orban had gone against the policy of most EU countries in support of Ukraine. Hungary has refused to supply weapons to Kyiv and chose a more humanitarian approach unlike the other EU members and NATO allies.