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Could Ismail Haniyeh's death spark a regional war?

The ‘assassination’ has significantly damaged Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks

Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh | AP

The ‘assassination’ of the top Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh could lead to an escalation of the regional conflicts. Haniyeh has been on Israel’s hit list since the October 7 Hamas attack. The Hamas supreme leader was killed at his residence in Tehran in an Israeli airstrike on early Wednesday. 

Several world leaders condemned the attack, while Iran vowed retaliation against Israel. 

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country would make Israel “regret” the “cowardly” killing of Haniyeh. “Iran will defend its territorial integrity, dignity, honour, and pride, and will make the terrorist occupiers regret their cowardly act,” said Pezeshkian.

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Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also said that avenging Haniyeh’s death is “Tehran’s duty”. Khamenei said Israel had paved the way for “harsh punishment”. 

Russia's foreign ministry condemned the killing. “We call on all parties to exercise restraint after the killing of Hamas leader.” The ministry also added that it was an “unacceptable political murder.”

“Those behind the assassination of Hamas leader were aware of the dangerous consequences this would have for the region. We call on all parties to refrain from steps that could trigger a large-scale armed conflict in the Middle East,” the ministry said in a statement. 

Haniyeh, who was based in Qatar, was a key figure in the Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks. His death is likely to damage the negotiation efforts. 

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Meanwhile, Qatar condemned the killing as a “heinous crime”. “A dangerous escalation and a flagrant violation of international and humanitarian law”, Qatar's foreign ministry said in a statement. 

Qatar also warned that "this assassination and the reckless Israeli behaviour...will lead to the region slipping into chaos and undermine the chances of peace." 

However, Israel has not yet claimed responsibility so far. 

"This assassination is a vileness that aims to disrupt the Palestinian cause, Gaza's noble resistance and our Palestinian siblings' rightful struggle, to break the will of Palestinians, and to intimidate them," Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said while condemning the killing. 

The Chinese foreign ministry said the incident could lead to further regional instability.

Haniyeh's killing comes after Israel targeted the group's military commander, Mohammed Dief. However, it remains unclear if he was killed in the airstrike last month.

It is believed that a response to the killing could bring the Hamas' allies, bringing the Middle East closer than ever to a regional war between Israel and Iran and its proxies.

Haniyeh lived in self-imposed exile in Qatar since 2019. He visited Turkey and Iran throughout the war and he is also known as a man who took the diplomatic efforts. 

Born in Gaza's urban Shati refugee camp on January 29, 1963, joined Hamas when it was founded in 1987. He served as an aid to Ahmad Yassin, the group's founder, and rose throughout the years. 

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