It was a difficult situation that Bangladesh’s Chief of Army Staff General Waker-Uz-Zaman had to face on August 2 when young officers demonstrated their angst at the state of affairs when the Army had to be deployed to control the escalating situation sparked by the month-long student-led protest, an insider account of the meeting accessed by THE WEEK showed.
The meeting was called by the Bangladesh Army chief to address his officers regarding the ongoing situation in Bangladesh. To tone down the ire of the officers, the Army chief went to the extent of pointing out that “if the transition of power happened in a non-democratic way, then our country (Bangladesh) might become like Kenya or other African countries,” the account said.
Advising restraint, the General said “our country had never experienced such mass protests since 1970. So, it's a unique case. We all need to have patience.” But a lot was already brewing inside the Bangladesh Army.
The meeting ended with the ire of the younger officers coming to the fore, finally compelling the Bangladesh Army chief Waker-Uz-Zaman to concede to the frowning demand for Hasina’s ouster.
Three days later, on August 5, Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had to be whisked to a waiting military helicopter to fly her across the Indian border to Agartala, where a Bangladesh Air Force C130 transport aircraft was parked to ferry her to Hindon air base on the outskirts of Delhi.
General Waker-Uz-Zaman’s position was that of unease as he is an appointee of Hasina and was married to the PM’s second cousin, which possibly made him more wary of the volatile situation. Trying to justify the army's deployment amid the chaos to combat criminal activities and restore normalcy, the chief said that the Bangladesh Army “performed well” and “fired 1,719 rounds of live ammunition, 14,000 rounds of blank ammunition, and engaged in thirty-one 'hot situations' with violent mobs across various locations in Bangladesh”.
While inviting queries from the officers about the legitimacy of his actions, a young Major Md Ali Haider Bhuyan questioned the legitimacy of the Army's actions during the deployment. In support of his argument, Major Bhuyan quoted two verses from the Holy Quran, asking for divine help against oppression and not to be complicit in it. Taken aback by the ‘demeanour’ of a junior officer, General Waker-Uz-Zaman could only respond with a ‘Ameen’ (‘so be it’).
A lady officer Major Hajera Jahan voiced concern about the growing resentment of the public towards the Army, underlining “the pain of losing children and the need for justice” to which the General readily agreed.
Responding to an officer from the Bangladesh Military Academy, who reported unacceptable activities by some officers from the paramilitary Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) and Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB), General Waker-Uz-Zaman said that it would be addressed after the chaotic period subsides.
Lieutenant Colonel Mahbub, Commanding Officer of the 5 Air Defence Regiment suggested the withdrawal of the troops citing diminishing public support for the Army, while another officer from Chittagong suggested the army should work to regain its image by supporting injured students.
In his final remarks, General Waker-Uz-Zaman “expressed the burden of social pressure and harassment he was facing and quoted a lyric from Ayub Bachchu, indicating his frustration”. Rocker, composer and songwriter Bachchu is considered as one of the greatest singers ever in Bangladesh.
Now safely ensconced in a safe house in Delhi, top Indian security officials including NSA Ajit Doval reportedly met former PM Hasina. According to a security establishment source, Doval would have taken feedback on the developments as well as on the chain of events that led to Hasina’s unceremonious exit from power.
With murder and other charges being clamped against Hasina and her ministers who are mostly absconding, the ousted PM, breaking her silence on Tuesday, issued a statement, which was posted on ‘X’ by her US-based son that demanded investigation, identification and punishment of those involved in “killings and vandalism” in the past month.
More than 300 people are believed to have died in the nationwide protests that began as an anti-quota stir but transformed into a Hasina ouster movement. It is still not very clear as to whether the month-long student-led protest was an organic one or one that was engineered by foreign powers.
At the centre of a growing controversy is the idyllic Narikel Jinjira (‘coconut island’) or St Martin’s Island, Bangladesh’s only coral island. Just eight square kilometres in area, home to less than 4,000 people, mainly fishermen folk, its location couldn’t have been more strategic. Just about nine kilometres from the southern tip of Bangladesh’s Teknaf peninsula and also equidistant from the northwest coast of Myanmar’s restive Rakhine province, it is an ideal location to keep an eye on both Bangladesh and Myanmar. And by corollary, on the increasing Chinese activity in Myanmar.
Interestingly, in June 2023, Hasina had alluded to a foreign power seeking a military base in the Island in return for ensuring the continuation of her government in power in Dhaka. She had then said: “I have no intention to go to power by selling the country’s assets.” In January, before the national elections, Hasina had claimed that “a white man” had again made a similar offer.
On Monday, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre denied accusations of US involvement: “We have had no involvement at all. Any reports or rumours that the United States government was involved in these—in these events are simply, simply false. That is not true.”
But the next line in the White House statement revealed the US stand on Hasina’s unceremonious ouster: “This is a choice for and by the Bangladeshi people. We believe that the Bangladeshi people should determine the future of the Bangladeshi government, and that’s where we stand.”
While the Arabian Sea is a familiar romping ground for its warships, the US has got a major naval support facility at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. It is only in the crucial Bay of Bengal that the US doesn't have much presence; a base in St Martin’s would have filled in the gap.
Dhaka-based political analyst and economist Dr Badiul Alam Mazumdar told THE WEEK: “What has happened is a mass upsurge. Concocted stories are doing the rounds that it has to do with St Martin’s Island. This island is too small to host a military base. It’s just an excuse playing out.”
At the same time, much to the disconcertment of the US, Hasina’s ties, particularly military, with Beijing, Moscow and New Delhi, had been warming over the years.
After a defence cooperation pact in 2002, Bangladesh-China military ties had grown manifold with Chinese weapons and systems accounting for 72 per cent of Bangladesh’s military equipment. Two Chinese Type-035G diesel-electric submarines—BN Nabajatra and BN Joyjatra—are doing service for the Bangladesh Navy. China is also helping Bangladesh build its submarine base at Pekua in Cox’s Bazar. Interestingly, the base is named BNS Sheikh Hasina.
Besides the main battle tank (MBT 2000) and the Type-69 medium tanks, Beijing has provided Dhaka with anti-tank missiles, rockets, rocket-propelled grenades, mortars, towed artillery, air defence systems, including MANPADS, anti-aircraft guns, radars, and Chengdu F-7 fighter aircraft.
Russia supplies 12 per cent of Bangladesh’s military hardware. Russia’s state-owned Rosatom is also helping Bangladesh build the first of its two nuclear power plants at Rooppur, with a soft loan of up to 90 per cent of the $12.65 billion project.
On the other hand, India-Bangladesh military ties have been on the upswing with India offering to modernize Bangladesh military and aid in capacity building. The ‘India-Bangladesh Shared Vision for Future’, signed on June 22 when Hasina visited New Delhi, is a comprehensive document that covers the entire ambit of the bilateral relationship including defence. Indian military hardware on offer includes the indigenous Light Combat Aircraft Tejas and Dhruv choppers among other equipment.
A military base for the US at St Martin’s, therefore, makes much military sense. But what is of concern for New Delhi is the prevalent anti-India narrative in Bangladesh where Hindus have been attacked and temples burnt.
Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya, a leading Bangladeshi economist and public policy analyst, told THE WEEK: “The Indian government gave unconditional and visible support to the erstwhile government notwithstanding the fact that the Hasina government did not have a democratic attitude. Obviously with the change of government, public discontent and public wrath has been directed to the neighbouring country.”
“Unfortunately, Hindus in Bangladesh are considered to be the proxy community for the Indian government. That is why they have been attacked. Moreover, many of the Hindus attacked are Awami League leaders and supporters. So they were attacked not necessarily because of their religion, but because of their political affiliation.”
On reports of statues of ‘Bangabandhu’ Mujibur Rahman being vandalized and overthrown, Bhattacharya said: “People are not yet distinguishing between the recent PM and the founding father. At the same time, we must not forget that there are extreme rightist groups in Bangladesh that look upon these statues as representations of idolatry and paganism.”
“So the rightist groups have got new space now. They have emerged much more powerful because of the lack of democracy and lack of competitive politics. Their resurgence can be attributed to the way the country was governed earlier,” adds Dhaka-based Bhattacharya. “But there is a broad-based agreement in Bangladesh that the relationship with India is a key element for future democratic progress and democratic evolution. I would look at it more as an opportunity”, says Bhattacharya.
Other than Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulating the Muhammad Yunus-led ‘Interim Government’ on August 9 on its assumption of office in Dhaka and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar making a statement on Bangladesh in Parliament on August 6, New Delhi’s position on the developments in Bangladesh has been somewhat muted.
Said Sabyasachi Dutta, founder-director of ‘Asian Confluence’, a Shillong-based think tank: “It is but natural that there is some silence from the Indian government now. Honestly, the situation in Bangladesh is still very fluid. The interim government with a new set of people has just taken over and is trying to put on rail the basics of administration like law and order.”
Rajiv Kumar Bhatia, former Indian ambassador to Myanmar, told THE WEEK: “As New Delhi is dealing with the issue in all its manifestations through diplomatic and security channels, perhaps the government feels there is no need to say more at this stage. There may be a felt need to deal with the situation on a day-to-day basis without making any unnecessary comments.”
Foreign minister Jaishankar’s statement in Parliament indicated that India had been in the know and was counselling restraint on Hasina’s effort to stamp out the student-led protest using force. Obviously, the counsel fell on deaf ears.
The Indian expectation was also that India was to be a transit in Hasina’s departure for another country: “At very short notice, she requested approval to come for the moment to India,” Jaishankar had stated.
While the fact that India chose to side with Hasina and her Awami League very strongly at the cost of maintaining nil contact with the political opposition led by Khaleda Zia’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) may have been a glaring mistake, Hasina’s stay in India may yet be a golden opportunity.
Although the Indian establishment may have been overwhelmed by the stunning speed with which the Bangladesh situation evolved and Hasina may have been ousted, the Awami League and its support ecosystem are far from being wiped out and Hasina may yet be India’s main asset in Bangladesh.
But what would add to Indian concerns is the strong possibility that Pakistan will find greater play in Bangladesh because of its proximity to the Bangladeshi chapter of the Jamaat-i-Islami and its close ally the Khaledia Zia-led Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). It makes sense therefore to build bridges with the BNP which is the other important political constituent in Bangladesh after the Awami League.
Says Dr Mazumdar: “The Indian government should absolutely interact with the interim government. On the other hand, Hasina should just stay quiet. Many cases have been filed against her. And if she is found guilty after an inquiry, India should hand over Hasina to Dhaka. So a lot depends on the response of the Indian government.”
Says Dutta: “Bangladesh has always been a pivotal country in the Bay of Bengal. It definitely has a key role in India’s Act East Policy. It is good for them too. It gives them connectivity to a huge market just next door.” He adds, “This perhaps is a good time to activate the ‘Act East Policy’ all the more. India needs to engage with the neighbourhood even more. Not as a counter to anybody but for the growth and geostrategic trajectory. It is time to recalibrate and re-strategise on how it can be a win-win situation for all.”
There are quite a few possible fallouts of the developments in Bangladesh. Insurgent groups from Northeast India, like the ULFA from Assam and the UNLF from Manipur, may find a new favourable geography and a political dispensation to set up safe havens from where they could operate.
Among the prime reasons why there have been mass-scale surrenders from the ULFA and the UNLF is pressure from the Hasina-led regime and the Myanmar ‘Tatmadaw’ or military that operated in tandem with the Indian forces. But a Bangladeshi regime with no love lost for India may offer a new lease of life for the insurgents. That means a big headache for New Delhi, just when it thought it had the Northeast insurgents up against the wall.
The problem of infiltration and refugees from Bangladesh to India’s Northeast and to West Bengal may become a challenge for the Indian establishment. In the possibility of a not-so-friendly government being installed at Dhaka, there could be another challenge with the narrow ‘Chicken’s Neck’ or the Siliguri corridor becoming much more vulnerable from the military standpoint.
Only 2 per cent of the land border of the Northeast region is connected to the mainland, while 98 per cent of the border stretch is encircled by foreign countries. That would call for major recalibration and reorientation of Indian military tactics and strategies.
At the moment, many important questions remain on the dizzily-paced Bangladesh power changeover. Involvement of foreign powers, Hasina’s fate, the direction of the interim government, and whether democracy triumphs, are all questions that will have to wait for the time being.
