With just 60 days remaining for the 2024 United States Presidential elections on November 5, both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have intensified their campaigns, especially with a focus on the battleground states. Even though Democratic candidate Harris has a lead over Republican Trump nationally, according to the polls, the contest is relatively tighter in the swing/battleground states.
Ultimately, the 93 electoral votes in the seven swing states are going to decide who will end up to occupy the White House.
What is a swing state?
Swing states or battleground states are those where both Democratic and Republican parties have similar levels of support among voters. These states play key roles in the Presidential election, as either candidate can win in case of a reasonable swing in votes to their side.
However, there are also 'safe states', which regularly lean to a single party—'red states' and 'blue states'. Yet, factors such as changing demographics and turnout, among other relevant issues, can make these states turn 'purple' as well in the election.
Notably, the surprise victory of President Joe Biden in 2020 and the election win of Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock in 2022 have turned Georgia into a ‘swing state’ recently.
Which are the swing states?
Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are the swing states this year.
1. Arizona
This southwestern border state has 11 electoral votes. Changing demographics and immigration have been major talking points in the state this year. Initially, Arizona was dominated by the Democratic party but from 1952, the state voted Republican in every Presidential election.
However, in 1996 Democrat Bill Clinton ended the streak by winning a little over two percentage points. In subsequent elections, the state supported Republican Presidential candidates until 2020, when President Biden won the election.
This year, Arizona is one of the crucial states, as immigration has been a hot topic of discussion lately. The situation at the US-Mexico border and its impact on nearby states have been major concerns for the country.
Demography: A majority of its population is white (52.9%), with 5.5% being Black or African American and 5.2% being American Indian or Alaska Native.
2. Georgia
This state in the southeastern region of the US has 16 electoral votes. The state has voted Republican in six consecutive Presidential elections from 1996 to 2016. This single-party dominance was broken by Democratic Party in 2020 with Biden's victory, a first since Bill Clinton in 1992.
The Black voter turnout played a crucial role in Biden's victory and the Democrats are hoping that this time, too, it helps. Also, with Biden stepping down from the race, the enthusiasm of the Democrat voters has also improved, signalling a positive wave within the party.
Demography: The Peach State's population is non-Hispanic white. Nearly a third (33.1%) of the population is Black or African-American, while 10.5% is Hispanic and 4.8% is Asian.
Key issues: Immigration, inflation and abortion rights.
>> READ: US swing state smackdown: Harris, Trump intensify battle for 7 states as election day nears
3. Michigan
Located in the Upper Midwest region of the US, Michigan has 15 electoral votes. Once a reliably blue state after consistently voting Republican in the 1970s and 1980s, it emerged as a key battleground after Trump’s victory in 2016. However, Biden reclaimed the state in 2020 with a larger margin.
In recent campaigns, Biden has concentrated on preserving the "blue wall" of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania that was crucial in defeating Trump. As the election approaches, Harris will also focus on this strategy.
Demography: Majority is white (74%), but the state is also home to a sizable Black population (14.1%). The next-largest group by race or ethnicity is the Hispanic population, which comprises 5.7%.
Key issues: Economy, immigration, health care, housing affordability and education.
4. Nevada
This Western region of the US has the lowest number of electoral votes among the seven swing states, six.
Although Nevada has voted for Democratic presidential candidates in the past four elections, it leaned Republican from the late 1960s to the early 2000s, with Bill Clinton's victories in the 1990s being notable exceptions.
Demography: Nevada is a diverse state, with less than half of its population non-Hispanic white (45.7%). The rest include Hispanics (30.3%), African Americans (10.8%) and Asians at 9.4%. As a result, Nevada's Hispanic population will play a significant role in the upcoming November election.
Key issues: Economy and immigration.
5. North Carolina
The Tar Heel state has 16 electoral votes. The state has voted for the Republican Presidential candidates in almost every election over decades. Trump won North Carolina by just 1.3 percentage points in 2020, a narrow victory that has boosted Democrats’ morale as they hope to turn it another Georgia this time.
Demography: About 62% of North Carolina’s population is non-Hispanic white. The state also has a sizable Black or African American population (22.2%) and Hispanic population (10.5%). Women voters also play a key role.
Key issues: Economy, abortion rights, health care and education.
6. Pennsylvania
The 'blue wall' Keystone State has 19 electoral votes, the highest among the swing states. Pennsylvania, a familiar battleground, saw Trump break a Democratic winning streak in 2016. Four years later, Biden rebuilt the "blue wall" by winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—key swing states again this year. Trump, who won all three in 2016, is aiming to reclaim Pennsylvania voters.
Demography: Nearly three-quarters (74.5%) of Pennsylvania’s population is non-Hispanic white, with the Black or African American population (12.2%) and Hispanic population (8.6%) accounting for the rest. White working-class voters are a key group for both candidates there. They were important Trump supporters in 2016.
Key issues: Economy, protecting democracy, immigration and abortion rights.
7. Wisconsin
Wisconsin has 10 electoral votes. Until Trump's victory in 2016, it was known as a reliably blue state. Wisconsin's significance in the 2024 race has been highlighted by the Republicans who had selected Milwaukee for their July nominating convention. Harris also chose Milwaukee for her first campaign visit after receiving the endorsement in July.
Demography: Majority are white (80.1%). The next-largest groups by race or ethnicity are the Hispanic (7.6%) and Black or African American populations (6.6%). The state’s relative lack of diversity means white working-class voters are a key group for both candidates there.
Key issues: Economy and abortion rights.
