Politics over peace? Netanyahu's speech at UN decoded

Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's much-awaited speech at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) on Friday was pure political theatre. It was particularly aimed at addressing the constituencies in the US and Israel, making it clear to them that Israel was not going to end the war against Hamas unless its objectives were met.

Netanyahu had vowed to destroy Hamas. He said that if Hamas retook political power in Gaza, it would regain its military strength, too, and would attack Israel again, a risk he did not want to take.

Netanyahu’s speech conveyed the sense that he was not yet prepared for negotiations. There have been efforts by Egypt, the United States and Qatar to put an end to the war, which has claimed tens of thousands of lives. But Netanyahu, it seems, wants to finish off Hamas once and for all. 

"Israeli forces have destroyed 90% of Hamas' rockets and killed or captured half of its forces," he said. Peace will be back in Gaza only after Hamas is destroyed completely, he said. The only other way to end the war, in his view, was for Hamas to surrender unconditionally and return all the remaining hostages.

While Netanyahu sounded uncompromising on Hamas, he did not rule out negotiations completely regarding the ongoing operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war, Hezbollah has been attacking Israel, using rockets and missiles. 

"Israel has been tolerating this intolerable situation for almost a year. Well, I've come here today to say: Enough is enough," Netanyahu said. It has forced nearly 70,000 Israelis in the northern parts of the country bordering Lebanon to evacuate. Israel vowed to continue the attacks against Hezbollah till its citizens can return safely to their homes.  

Moreover, compared with the Gaza war, the attacks on Hezbollah enjoy Israeli public support as well. So those attacks, too, could continue. However, it appears that negotiation is possible at least when it comes to Hezbollah once the primary Israeli objectives are met, given it's a more powerful entity, unlike Hamas. It is not easy for Israel to wage another long, sustained and large-scale war with Hezbollah at this point.  

Netanyahu will not forget the fact that Israel had to end its occupation of southern Lebanon in 2000, as Hezbollah proved a tough nut to crack. Later, in 2006, Hezbollah fought a war against Israel and the result was a stalemate. So it was not surprising that Netanyahu's speech hinted that he was not completely against the 21-day ceasefire proposal put forward by France and the US on Wednesday.

There are also domestic political reasons why Netanyahu wants to continue with the war. He faces corruption charges and other legitimacy issues, and staying on as prime minister offers him immunity from arrest and jail. The moment the war ends, the anti-Netanyahu factions within Israeli politics and the existing public sentiment against him could force him out. So Netanyahu is keeping his far-right wing coalition happy, which does not want any sort of compromise with Hamas or Hezbollah. 

The upcoming US elections also play a role in Netanyahu’s calculations. Till the elections end, the Biden administration is unlikely to put any significant pressure on Netanyahu to make compromises as it would be detrimental to Kamala Harris’s chances. And if Trump wins on November 5, it will be a win-win situation for Netanyahu. So, in a sense, he is also playing for time. 

Netanyahu’s speech, meanwhile, was not all threats and bluster. He also tried to appear like a statesman by speaking about peace and prosperity in the wider Middle East, displaying two maps, which he titled the ‘Curse’ and the ‘Blessing’.

One showed the India-Middle East Europe economic corridor that will pass through Israel and Saudi Arabia--it was pitched as a great civilisational linkage between the continents and a major economic opportunity.

On the other hand, he pointed out how Iran had created an arc of terrorism and uncertainty in the region. In this context, he pitched hard to normalise ties with Saudi Arabia and stressed taking forward the Abraham Accords. While he threatened Iran with destruction, he literally spoke like a salesman while addressing the Saudi leadership, imploring them for a normalisation of relations and mutual diplomatic recognition.

Even as Netanyahu was speaking at the UN, Israeli warplanes targeted several residential buildings south of Beirut in an attempt to kill Hezbollah supreme leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was reportedly holding a leadership meeting in an underground headquarters.

Based on the scale of the ammunition used and the information collected from within Hezbollah, Israeli intelligence thinks that Nasrallah has been killed. If it is indeed true, it could be another major turning point in the turbulent Middle East politics.