Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has reportedly asked the Iranian military to "prepare for war" and devise plans to respond to Israel's attack. But, the Iranian action will depend on the severity of Israel’s attacks.
Iran will retaliate if Israel strikes its oil and energy infrastructure or nuclear facilities or if it assassinates senior officials. But, it would not if Israel limits its attacks to a few military bases or warehouses storing missiles and drones, according to The New York Times.
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Iran has ordered the armed forces to be prepared for war but also to try to avoid it, especially after seeing the decimation of its allies in Lebanon and Gaza, the report quoted four unnamed Iranian officials.
If Israel's attack is severe, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) may consider firing a barrage of over 1,000 ballistic missiles and disrupt the flow of global energy supplies and shipping moving through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's proxies in the region, including Hezbollah and Houthis, may also escalate attacks on Israel.
While Tehran is wary about a widespread conflict, it doesn't want to appear weak or vulnerable to the world, especially in the wake of Israel’s assassinations of multiple leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah, the NYT report added.
Earlier, there were reports Israel could target oil facilities. It could also carry out targeted assassinations and take out Iran's air defence systems. A clandestine operation like the one that killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran two months ago was also considered. However, the US had opposed any attack on Iranian oil or nuclear infrastructure as it could escalate fighting.
A widespread conflict in the region won't help Iran's plans to negotiate with the West to help lift sanctions. "The thinking now is that if Israel’s attack is symbolic and limited, we ought to let go and end the ping pong of attacks," Nasser Imani, a political analyst close to the government, told The NYT in a telephone interview from Tehran.
However, IRGC has openly warned Israel that even with US assistance, it won't be able to ward off Iranian missiles. "Just as the Arrow anti-missile systems did not work during Operation True Promise 2 (the October 1 missile attack), the THAAD systems will not work either. Do not rely on THAAD, they have limited capabilities," IRGC chief Hossein Salami was quoted by Russian state news agency TASS quoted Salami.
